Harley-Davidson (HOG)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-09-04
$28.30+2.28%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-09-04
Research Workspace
Put HOG beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Consumer Discretionary is in expansion. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
The reason to own it still holds.
View ThesisRevenue is contracting — down about 5% over the past year.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 2% on a typical day and fell roughly 43% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskHarley-Davidson's growth in motorcycle sales must continue to justify its price. Recent earnings showed a 6% revenue increase, beating expectations. The stock trades at 17× P/E, slightly above the peer median of 15×. This suggests the price reflects modest growth compared to our view. A risk is the 41% chance of missing earnings expectations next quarter. The Canadian tariff on motorcycles could also hurt sales. Peer multiples imply a price about 7% above where it trades. Our read remains intact.
Trailing returns as of 2026-09-04. HOG is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 16 analysts currently covering HOG (as of Sep 2026).
Based on 5 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for HOG in the last 4 months.
Continue this research
Compare HOG with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOG Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 9 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Consumer Discretionary (broad) — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Our valuation methods disagree too much on this name right now. Rather than print a number we don't believe, we're holding it back until they converge.
Compare the value case
Put HOG next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Threatens: Manage capital investments and share repurchases
Dividend cut signals potential issues in capital allocation.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-09-04. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $28.30
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $28.30.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Around the middle on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Threatens: Increase global retail motorcycle sales
Tariff could significantly impact sales in Canada.
Threatens: Increase global retail motorcycle sales
Tariff could significantly impact sales in Canada.
Advances: Increase global retail motorcycle sales
Record profit indicates strong sales growth and market demand.
Advances: Increase global retail motorcycle sales
Targets retail units and improves income outlook.
Advances: Improve operating income and margin
Earnings call provides insights on operating income.
Advances: Increase global retail motorcycle sales
Stronger sales of affordable bikes support retail sales growth.
Threatens: Improve operating income and margin
Profit dip threatens operating income and margin objective.
