Harley-Davidson (HOG)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-11-04
$34.59+3.81%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-11-04
Research Workspace
Put HOG beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Consumer Discretionary is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
View ThesisRevenue is contracting — down about 15% over the past year.
View GrowthRanks in the weakest quality tier of its industry — roughly the bottom 39%, softest on free-cash-flow margins.
View QualityMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationModerate volatility — typically moves about 2% a day.
View RiskHarley-Davidson's retail motorcycle sales must keep compounding to justify the price. Revenue growth is slowing, with Q3 2026 missing estimates. The stock trades at 0.9x sales versus a 0.8x peer median. This premium to peers is not yet fully priced in. Management is running behind on a stated commitment. Our model puts the next-quarter miss probability near 34%. Peer multiples imply a price about 10% below where it trades. The thesis is on watch, and this read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-11-04. HOG is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 15 analysts currently covering HOG (as of Nov 2026).
Based on 6 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for HOG in the last 4 months.
Continue this research
Compare HOG with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
Compare now without an account. Saving and monitoring require an account.
| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOG Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-11-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Consumer Discretionary (broad) — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Our valuation methods disagree too much on this name right now. Rather than print a number we don't believe, we're holding it back until they converge.
Compare the value case
Put HOG next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Increase global retail motorcycle sales
New entry-level model supports global retail sales growth.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-11-04. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $34.59
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $34.59.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Around the middle on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Advances: Increase global retail motorcycle sales
New entry-level model targets new rider acquisition.
Advances: Grow LiveWire's electric motorcycle business
Separating LiveWire establishes a dedicated electric motorcycle business, though execution and commercial scale remain uncertain.
Threatens: Grow LiveWire's electric motorcycle business
Reported refusal to support a struggling spinoff raises material concerns about LiveWire's viability and growth objective.
Threatens: Improve operating income and profitability
Low operating-income guidance signals profitability pressure despite a higher retail outlook.
Threatens: Focus on improving operating income
Sharp profit decline is a meaningful headwind to the operating-income objective.
Threatens: Focus on improving operating income
Q3 miss and sharp stock decline signal meaningful pressure on operating performance.
Advances: Increase global retail motorcycle sales
Higher projected sales volume supports retail growth despite net income decline.