Harley-Davidson (HOG)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-09-04
$28.30+2.28%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HOG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -6.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -4.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 2.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 12 industry peers
HOG — officer change
Dated 2026-06-26
Chief Legal, Compliance and Corporate Affairs Officer and Corporate Secretary — Paul Krause: Paul Krause is transitioning to an advisory role and will exit the Company, with Gayle Littleton taking over his position.
Why it matters: Higher HDFS income means better financial services. This helps increase overall profit.
Supportive ifHDFS operating income exceeds $60 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifHDFS operating income remains below $45 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Success in this strategy could drive long-term growth and improve dealer relationships.
Supportive ifManagement shares good news or dealer feedback about the Back to the Bricks plan.
Worry ifManagement reports delays or problems with the Back to the Bricks strategy.
Why it matters: Growth in retail sales shows demand for Harley-Davidson motorcycles. It impacts revenue and market share.
Supportive ifIn Q3, global motorcycle sales are over 34,000 units. This is more than Q2 2026.
Worry ifIn Q3, global motorcycle sales are below 33,000 units. This shows weak demand.
Why it matters: Harley-Davidson is growing its revenue. This shows it can handle current challenges. This is key for future success.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth exceeds 15% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth remains below 10% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$181 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $393 loss on $10,000 · 3.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,322 loss on $10,000 · 43.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Stable shipments show recovery in Harley's supply chain and demand.
Watch forGlobal motorcycle shipments stay steady or rise above 37,000 units in Q2.
Also watch forGlobal motorcycle shipments drop below 36,000 units in Q2.
Why it matters: Better margins are important for Harley-Davidson to bounce back from losses. This shows cost management is working.
Supportive ifOperating income margin goes above 2% in Q2.
Worry ifOperating income margin stays below 2% in Q2.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow is vital for Harley's financial stability and growth plans.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations turns positive in Q2.
Worry ifCash flow from operations remains negative in Q2.
Why it matters: Share repurchases can signal management's confidence in the stock. It may also affect stock price.
Supportive ifThe company starts a new share buyback program or increases current buybacks.
Worry ifThe company pauses or cuts share buybacks.
Why it matters: More revenue from LiveWire shows growth in electric motorcycles and new ideas.
Supportive ifLiveWire revenue exceeds $10 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifLiveWire revenue falls below $8 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Sustained growth in North America is key to overall sales. It reflects consumer demand and brand strength.
Supportive ifNorth American motorcycle sales are up more than 3% compared to last year in Q3.
Worry ifNorth American motorcycle sales are down compared to last year in Q3.
Why it matters: Better income means more profit. It also shows good execution of plans.
Supportive ifHDMC operating income exceeds $50 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifHDMC operating income remains below $10 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Stable or rising revenue shows success in growth plans.
Supportive ifRevenue growth stabilizes or rises year over year, exceeding $1.33B.
Worry ifRevenue continues to decline year over year.