Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Home BancShares (HOMB)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
$30.07-1.25%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.60 → 2.60 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for HOMB yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS remains within guidance range $2.44 to $2.53 in FY26 | Home BancShares keeps stable earnings with EPS guidance near $2.5 for 2026. | Under Pressure | EPS falls below $2.44 or above $2.53 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $0.65 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: EPS between $2.44 and $2.53. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 14, 20260.65 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
HOMB is a regional bank with a steady-earnings profile, rather than a turnaround story. Its long-term thesis is intact: management has kept diluted earnings per share within a narrow range and reported record net income in the third quarter, though recent company momentum weakened after earnings.
Valuation is tagged as justified, and HOMB trades at a modest premium to peers. The expectations gap is small and aligned, so the evidence points to expectations broadly matching the current business picture rather than a large disconnect.
Near term, recent results show earnings holding up, with third-quarter net income at a record and an improved efficiency ratio, a measure of costs relative to revenue. That improvement partly reflects the absence of merger expenses, while acquisition integration and cost discipline remain areas to watch. The near-term risk of a miss is rated low, but prior misses among HOMB and industry peers, possible guidance cuts, and rate changes remain risks.
Over the next several quarters, the thesis hinges on completing Mountain Commerce Bancorp integration while sustaining deposit growth and earnings. Guidance cuts would be a meaningful negative, and rate cuts could weigh on HOMB and the wider financial sector. Continued strong results and higher guidance from sector bellwethers would support sector momentum.
For the 1-to-3-year view, HOMB’s steady earnings and acquisition progress support an intact thesis, but weaker momentum and sensitivity to rates leave meaningful execution and sector risks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Net income stayed steady at about $118 million despite slight revenue dips. |
| Under Pressure |
| Net income falls below $118 million in any quarter |
Net income: $129.451M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Net income >= $118 million per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 14, 2026129,451,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue does not decline more than 3.5% in next 12 months | A supporting condition in Home BancShares's published investment case. The stated target is Revenue decline no worse than -3.5% YoY. | Intact | Revenue decline exceeds -3.5% YoY | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
P/E remains near 12x or below | A supporting condition in Home BancShares's published investment case. The stated target is P/E <= 12. | Intact | P/E rises above 14 without earnings growth | P/E (TTM): 12.08x As of 2026-11-05; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Nov 5, 202612.0763 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.60 → $2.60 · observed estimates
$1.22B → $1.19B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.60 | $1,224,491,401 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.60 | $1,224,491,401 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.60 | $1,204,686,840 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.60 | $1,204,686,840 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.60 | $1,204,686,840 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.60 | $1,204,686,840 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.60 | $1,204,686,840 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.60 | $1,204,686,840 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.61 | $1,225,733,298 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.60 | $1,204,686,840 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.61 | $1,225,733,298 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.60 | $1,204,686,840 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.60 | $1,204,686,840 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.60 | $1,204,686,840 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.60 | $1,204,661,835 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.60 | $1,204,686,840 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.60 | $1,204,686,840 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.60 | $1,204,661,835 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.60 | $1,204,686,840 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.60 | $1,204,686,840 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.60 | $1,204,661,835 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.60 | $1,204,661,835 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.60 | $1,204,661,835 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.60 | $1,204,661,835 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.60 | $1,204,661,835 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.60 | $1,204,661,835 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.60 | $1,204,661,835 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.60 | $1,204,661,835 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.60 | $1,204,661,835 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.60 | $1,204,661,835 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.60 | $1,204,661,835 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.60 | $1,204,661,835 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.60 | $1,204,661,835 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.60 | $1,204,661,835 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.60 | $1,204,661,835 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.60 | $1,204,661,835 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.60 | $1,204,661,835 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.60 | $1,204,661,835 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.60 | $1,204,661,835 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.60 | $1,204,661,835 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.60 | $1,204,661,835 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.60 | $1,204,661,835 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.60 | $1,204,661,835 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.60 | $1,200,911,835 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.60 | $1,200,911,835 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.60 | $1,200,911,835 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.60 | $1,202,099,409 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.60 | $1,202,099,409 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.60 | $1,202,099,409 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.60 | $1,201,243,854 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.60 | $1,201,243,854 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.60 | $1,201,243,854 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.60 | $1,201,243,854 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.60 | $1,201,243,854 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.60 | $1,201,243,854 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.60 | $1,201,243,854 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.60 | $1,201,243,854 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.60 | $1,201,243,854 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.60 | $1,201,243,854 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.60 | $1,201,243,854 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.60 | $1,201,243,854 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.60 | $1,201,370,076 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.60 | $1,201,370,076 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.60 | $1,201,370,076 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.60 | $1,201,370,076 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.60 | $1,201,370,076 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.60 | $1,201,370,076 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.60 | $1,201,370,076 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.60 | $1,201,370,076 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.60 | $1,201,370,076 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.60 | $1,201,370,076 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.60 | $1,201,370,076 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.60 | $1,201,370,076 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.60 | $1,201,370,076 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.60 | $1,201,370,076 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.60 | $1,201,370,076 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.60 | $1,201,370,076 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.60 | $1,201,370,076 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.60 | $1,201,370,076 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.60 | $1,201,370,076 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.60 | $1,201,370,076 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.60 | $1,201,370,076 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.60 | $1,201,370,076 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.60 | $1,198,086,742 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.60 | $1,198,086,742 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.60 | $1,187,051,096 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.60 | $1,187,051,096 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.60 | $1,187,051,096 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.60 | $1,187,051,096 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.60 | $1,187,051,096 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.60 | $1,187,051,096 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.60 | $1,187,051,096 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.60 | $1,187,051,096 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.60 | $1,187,051,096 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.60 | $1,187,051,096 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.60 | $1,187,051,096 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.60 | $1,187,051,096 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.60 | $1,187,051,096 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.60 | $1,187,051,096 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.60 | $1,187,051,096 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.60 | $1,187,051,096 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.60 | $1,187,051,096 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.60 | $1,187,051,096 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-11-05 | $2.60 | $1,187,051,096 | 7 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 2 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.