Home BancShares (HOMB)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$30.15+0.50%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HOMB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 4.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -5.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 10.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 220 industry peers
HOMB — litigation filed
Dated 2026-03-24
Other Events. On March 24, 2026, Home BancShares, Inc. (“Home”) announced that it has received approvals from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and the Arkansas State Bank Department of its applications to acquire Mountain Commerce Bancorp, Inc. (“MCBI”), the holding company for Mountain Commerce Bank. The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and the Arkansas State Bank Department have each also approved the proposed merger of Mountain Commerce Bank with and int…
Why it matters: A fall in net interest margin may show lower profits on loans. This could hurt overall earnings.
Worry ifNet interest margin reported below 4.51% for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifNet interest margin remains at or above 4.51% for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in NIM could show trouble keeping profits up as costs rise.
Worry ifNIM is below 4.51%. This indicates possible pressure on profits.
Less concerning ifNIM is at or above 4.51%. This suggests profits are stable.
Why it matters: A rising efficiency ratio means costs are going up compared to income. This may show weaker operations.
Worry ifEfficiency ratio is over 45%. This shows higher costs from merger expenses.
Less concerning ifEfficiency ratio is under 45%. This shows good cost management despite merger costs.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is key for checking company expansion. It also helps with acquisitions.
Supportive ifTotal revenue growth was above 10.6% in Q3. This shows strong performance.
Worry ifTotal revenue growth was below 10.6%. This suggests possible revenue challenges.
Why it matters: Growth in adjusted EPS shows strong earnings. It also shows management can keep profits.
Supportive ifQ3 adjusted EPS was above $0.64. This shows earnings are still strong.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EPS was below $0.64. This suggests earnings are getting weaker.
Why it matters: Strong loan growth shows good balance sheet management. It also shows successful acquisitions.
Supportive ifTotal loans were above $17.13 billion. This indicates strong growth.
Worry ifTotal loans were below $17.13 billion. This suggests slower growth or integration issues.
Why it matters: Slow loan growth makes people worry. They question if the company can grow on its own.
Worry ifOrganic loan growth was below $46 million in Q3. This shows possible growth problems.
Less concerning ifOrganic loan growth exceeds $46 million in Q3, showing strong underlying demand.
Why it matters: If revenue growth drops, it signals a potential slowdown in the financial sector. This could impact Home BancShares.
Worry ifHome BancShares reports revenue growth below the median of 13% year over year.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth stays above the median of 13% year over year.
Why it matters: The acquisition is key for Home BancShares' growth strategy. Strong loan growth shows success.
Supportive ifLoans increase by more than $1.49 billion in the next quarter after the acquisition.
Worry ifLoans increase by less than $1 billion in the next quarter after the acquisition.
Why it matters: A drop in adjusted EPS may show lower profits. This could worry investors about future earnings.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS reported below $0.64 for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EPS remains at or above $0.64 for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Successful integration will show if the acquisition adds value and boosts earnings.
Supportive ifManagement says the integration is going well. Financial metrics from Mountain Commerce are better.
Worry ifThere are integration problems. This leads to lower revenue or higher costs.
Why it matters: More non-performing assets could mean higher credit risk. This can affect financial stability.
Worry ifNon-performing assets are more than 1.0% of total assets.
Less concerning ifNon-performing assets are less than 1.0% of total assets.
Why it matters: A lower efficiency ratio means better cost control. It shows better operations.
Supportive ifThe efficiency ratio was below 41.99%. This shows better cost control.
Worry ifEfficiency ratio is above 41.99%. This shows ongoing cost challenges.
Why it matters: A drop in EPS may show weaker earnings. This can hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifQ3 diluted EPS reported below $0.59.
Less concerning ifQ3 diluted EPS reported at or above $0.59.
Why it matters: Higher integration costs may mean problems in merging Mountain Commerce. This can hurt profits.
Worry ifMerger costs in Q3 are over $12.7 million.
Less concerning ifMerger costs in Q3 are $12.7 million or less.
Why it matters: Lower loan growth may show weak demand or integration problems. This can affect future revenue.
Worry ifTotal loans increase by less than $1.5 billion in Q3.
Less concerning ifTotal loans increase by $1.5 billion or more in Q3.
Why it matters: A worse efficiency ratio may mean rising costs. This can lead to lower operational efficiency.
Worry ifEfficiency ratio exceeds 44.54% in Q3.
Less concerning ifEfficiency ratio remains at or below 44.54% in Q3.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$74 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $198 loss on $10,000 · 2.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,546 loss on $10,000 · 15.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.