Honeywell (HON)
NASDAQIndustrialsConglomeratesSnapshot 2026-07-07
$225.05-2.65%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Track HON free→Honeywell plans to complete its Aerospace spin-off by Q3 2026, unlocking growth. Revenue is guided between $38.8B and $39.8B in 2026, growing about 3% to 6%. Free cash flow is strong, with guidance of $5.3B to $5.6B, up 4% to 10%. Adjusted EPS is expected to grow 6% to 9%, reaching about $10.5 per share.
The Aerospace spin-off may face margin pressures and execution risks. Analysts expect a sharp revenue decline of about 34% next year. Management's guidance is soft and recent price corrections reflect uncertainty. CEO transitions and deal execution issues could hurt growth.
The stock trades about 17% above our fair value near $194, which is 25% below the Street median target. The market expects a steep revenue decline of about 34%, while we see moderate growth. Our view differs by expecting better revenue and cash flow delivery post spin-off.
Breaks if: Adjusted EPS falls below $10.35 in FY26
Grow adjusted earnings per share to a range of $10.35 to $10.65 in 2026, representing 6% to 9% growth over prior year.
Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Adjusted EPS grew from $9.78 in 2025 to guidance of $10.35 to $10.65 in 2026, representing 6% to 9% growth. Management has consistently reaffirmed this target, indicating delivery and focus on earnings growth.
“Expect 2026 adjusted EPS of $10.35 to $10.65, up 6% to 9%.”
“2026 adjusted EPS guidance reaffirmed at $10.35 to $10.65.”
“Adjusted EPS guidance for 2025 raised to $10.45 to $10.65.”
“Adjusted EPS guidance for 2025 raised to $10.45 to $10.65.”
“Adjusted EPS guidance for 2025 raised to $10.20 to $10.50.”
Breaks if: Spin-off delayed beyond Q3 2026
Execute the planned separation of Honeywell Aerospace Technologies into an independent publicly traded company by the third quarter of 2026.
Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Management consistently reaffirmed the Aerospace Technologies spin-off to be completed by Q3 2026. The company completed the spin-off of Solstice Advanced Materials in late 2025 as part of portfolio simplification. The spin-off timing is on track, matching management's stated timeline.
“Separation of automation and aerospace businesses to be completed in third quarter of 2026.”
“Spin-off of Honeywell Aerospace into an independent publicly traded company now expected in third quarter of 2026.”
“Separation of Automation and Aerospace businesses remains on track for completion in second half of 2026.”
“Board decided to pursue separation of Automation and Aerospace businesses, intended to be completed in second half of 2026.”
“Board concluded portfolio review and decided to pursue separation of Automation and Aerospace businesses in second half of 2026.”
Breaks if: Free cash flow falls below $5.3B in FY26
Maintain strong free cash flow generation with guidance of $5.3 billion to $5.6 billion in 2026, representing 4% to 10% growth.
Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Free cash flow increased from $4.2 billion in 2024 to $5.1 billion in 2025, a 20% increase. Management guides free cash flow of $5.3 billion to $5.6 billion in 2026, targeting 4% to 10% growth, showing delivery and sustained focus on cash generation.
“Free cash flow expected to be $5.3 billion to $5.6 billion, growth of 4% to 10%.”
“Free cash flow guidance reaffirmed at $5.3 billion to $5.6 billion for 2026.”
“Free cash flow guidance range of $5.4 billion to $5.8 billion for 2025.”
“Free cash flow guidance range of $5.4 billion to $5.8 billion for 2025.”
“Free cash flow guidance range of $5.4 billion to $5.8 billion for 2025.”
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $38.8B in FY26
Drive full-year 2026 revenue growth with organic sales growth guidance of 3% to 6%, continuing growth momentum across segments.
Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Revenue grew from $34.7 billion in 2024 to $37.4 billion in 2025, an 8% increase. Management guides 2026 revenue between $38.8 billion and $39.8 billion with organic growth of 3% to 6%, indicating continued delivery on growth targets.
“Expect full-year sales of $38.8 billion to $39.8 billion with organic growth of 3% to 6%.”
“Full-year sales expected to be $38.8 billion to $39.8 billion with organic growth of 3% to 6%.”
“Full-year sales guidance updated to $40.8 billion to $41.3 billion with organic growth of 4% to 5%.”
“Raised full-year organic growth guidance to 4% to 5%.”
“Maintained full-year organic growth guidance of 2% to 5%.”