Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
$2.05 → $2.14 · observed estimates
Helmerich & Payne, Inc. (HP)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas DrillingSnapshot 2026-11-04
$34.68-3.96%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas DrillingSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.14 → 2.14 EPS · FY ending Sep 30, 2028 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for HP yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capital expenditures remain near $290 million next quarter | The company maintains stable capital spending around $290 million next quarter. | Intact | CAPEX deviates by more than 10% from $290 million in 2026-Q3 | Capital expenditures: $69.773M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$290 million. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Aug 6, 202669,773,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
$2.05 → $2.14 · observed estimates
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
HP is an energy-sector business with a sector tailwind, but its current thesis is in a watch state rather than a clear operating recovery. The long-term thesis has some support from improving North America and Offshore Solutions margins, while recent execution signals remain mixed.
The evidence describes HP as cheap versus peers, but also flags a negative expectations gap, meaning expectations appear ahead of what the model currently supports. Confidence in that valuation reading is low, and the evidence does not indicate that a severe combination of expensive valuation, weak fundamentals, and sector turmoil is priced in.
Near term, earnings risk is elevated after recent misses, and the signal has shifted from mixed to cautious. Over the multi-year view, North America and Offshore Solutions margins have improved, while FlexRobotics deployments and contracts show commercial progress without quantified revenue or margin impact.
The next earnings call is a key near-term test: a guidance cut would add pressure to an already cautious fundamental picture. Over the broader view, the thesis also depends on continued margin execution and robotics deployment, alongside whether energy-sector bellwethers keep supporting or weaken the sector tailwind.
The 1-to-3-year read is mixed: segment margins and robotics activity offer support, but repeated earnings misses and a low-confidence valuation view leave meaningful execution risk. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Offshore Solutions direct margin exceeded guidance midpoint despite a small decline. |
| Broken |
| direct margin falls below $215 million in any quarter after 2026-Q2 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Offshore Solutions direct margin meets or exceeds guidance midpoint near $27 million | Offshore Solutions direct margin exceeded guidance midpoint despite a small decline. | Improving | direct margin falls below $27 million in any quarter after 2026-Q2 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““Our Offshore Solutions segment continues to demonstrate its strategic value, supported by long‑term contracts that provide earnings stability through market cycles.” “We are seeing strong momentum in multi‑year extensions, highlighted by a recent five‑year renewal with bp in the Caspian Sea,” he said.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Company revenue grows at least 4.9% year-over-year | A primary condition in Helmerich & Payne, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= 4.9% YoY. | Intact | revenue growth falls below 4.9% year-over-year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.44B → $4.53B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | $2.05 | $4,435,155,014 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.05 | $4,435,155,014 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.14 | $4,476,141,310 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.14 | $4,476,141,310 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.14 | $4,476,141,310 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.10 | $4,504,248,646 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.10 | $4,504,248,646 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.10 | $4,504,248,646 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.10 | $4,504,248,646 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.10 | $4,504,248,646 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.09 | $4,504,248,646 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.09 | $4,504,248,646 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.07 | $4,500,457,747 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.12 | $4,494,517,998 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.13 | $4,500,551,177 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.13 | $4,500,551,177 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.13 | $4,500,551,177 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.13 | $4,493,164,968 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.13 | $4,493,164,968 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.13 | $4,493,164,968 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.14 | $4,526,992,775 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.14 | $4,526,992,775 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.14 | $4,526,992,775 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.14 | $4,526,992,775 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.14 | $4,526,992,775 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.14 | $4,526,992,775 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.14 | $4,526,992,775 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.14 | $4,526,992,775 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.14 | $4,526,992,775 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.14 | $4,526,992,775 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.14 | $4,526,992,775 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.14 | $4,526,992,775 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.14 | $4,526,992,775 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.14 | $4,526,992,775 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.14 | $4,526,992,775 | 4 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 18, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.