Helmerich & Payne, Inc. (HP)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas DrillingSnapshot 2026-09-04
$44.36-1.47%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas DrillingSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 9.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 2.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 3 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
HP — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-05
of Form 8-K and shall not be deemed to be "filed" for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Why it matters: Expanding this technology is crucial for H&P's competitive edge. Delays could hurt growth.
Supportive ifFlexRobotics will deploy on four more rigs.
Worry ifThere will be no new FlexRobotics Technology deployments in the next quarter.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$164 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $444 loss on $10,000 · 4.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,649 loss on $10,000 · 26.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Why it matters: A margin of $30 million shows the offshore segment is stable and profitable.
Supportive ifOffshore Solutions direct margin was at or above $30 million in Q4 results.
Worry ifA direct margin below $24 million means there are problems in operations or the market.
Why it matters: Managing this bond is key for H&P's financial health. Delays in repayment could signal issues.
Worry ifAnnouncement of a plan to address the $350 million bond with strong free cash flow.
Less concerning ifNo clear plan or updates on the bond repayment strategy.
Why it matters: News on rig activity shows how H&P handles risks and keeps operations running.
Watch forAnnouncement of new contracts or rig reactivations in the Middle East.
Also watch forMore delays or cancellations of rig work in the Middle East.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if the company is improving its financial health. Investors look for signs of recovery or continued losses.
Watch forEarnings report shows a profit or smaller loss compared to previous quarters.
Also watch forEarnings report shows a larger loss than expected or no improvement.
Why it matters: This margin is key to H&P's profitability. A drop below $230 million signals trouble.
Worry ifDirect margin reported between $230 million and $240 million for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifDirect margin exceeds $240 million for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: If energy sector revenue growth speeds up, it could signal a recovery for Helmerich & Payne. This would help the company improve its performance.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth rate increases back toward previous highs, above 6%.
Worry ifSector revenue growth continues to slow or remains below 6%.