Helmerich & Payne, Inc. (HP)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas DrillingSnapshot 2026-11-04
$34.68-3.96%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas DrillingSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -14.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 6.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 21.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 2 industry peers
HP — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-07
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION On October 7, 2026, Helmerich & Payne, Inc. (the " Company ") issued a press release announcing, among other things, certain financial and operating guidance for its fourth fiscal quarter and year ended September 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and incorporated by reference into this
Why it matters: H&P named FlexRobotics growth as a priority and is adding the technology to rigs. More paid deployments would show customer demand.
Supportive ifH&P names new FlexRobotics customer contracts. It reports the technology working on more than four additional rigs.
Worry ifH&P reports no new FlexRobotics contracts or added rig deployments by the next earnings report.
Why it matters: H&P says it plans to keep its base dividend while reducing debt. A lower payout would weaken that commitment.
Worry ifThe board cuts the quarterly dividend below $0.25 per share or skips a scheduled payment.
Less concerning ifThe board keeps the quarterly dividend at $0.25 per share or higher through the next two declared payments.
Why it matters: Management sees stronger overall direct margins in FY2027 than FY2026. The next results will test that view.
Supportive ifQ1 FY2027 total direct margin tops about $315 million, the Q4 FY2026 level. This is based on reported segment results.
Worry ifQ1 FY2027 total direct margin is about $315 million or less. This is based on reported segment results.
Why it matters: North America direct margin rose to $241 million in Q3. A higher result would build on recent gains.
Supportive ifH&P reports North America direct margin above $255 million in Q1 FY2027.
Worry ifH&P reports North America direct margin below $241 million in Q1 FY2027.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$148 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $457 loss on $10,000 · 4.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,649 loss on $10,000 · 26.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.