HP Inc. (HPQ)
NYSEInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-07-08
$23.77+3.53%
Close 2026-07-08 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 10 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $23.77. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $23 HPQ trades at 6.9× p/e, below its 43× p/e peer median. Our $81 fair value sits well above the price. We hold it with low confidence: our number sits well above the analyst range and our valuation methods disagree. Analysts target $17–$20. Note: our $81 fair value sits above the entire analyst range ($17–$20). Not investment advice.
$17.00 – $20.00 (median $19.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-06-02
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $3.07/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $19.00 | — | — | Analyst | low |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $183.50 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | low |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $211.46 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | low |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $52.21 | — | — | TTM | low |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $99.81 | 43.4 | 2.30 | Mgmt | low |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $80.76 | 21.6 | 4.03 | TTM | low |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $88.19 | 21.6 | 4.09 | TTM | low |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $134.66 | 43.4 | 3.10 | TTM | low |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $24.18 | 7.8 | 3.10 | TTM | low |
| triangulated | 12M | $152.64 | 43.4 | 3.52 | Triangulated | low |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $78.19 | 43.4 | 1.80 | Mgmt(prov.) | low |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $134.13 | 21.6 | 6.21 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | low |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $147.60 | 43.4 | 3.40 | Analyst | low |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $26.50 | 7.8 | 3.40 | Analyst | low |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $66.44 | 43.4 | 1.53 | Mgmt(prov.) | low |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $177.39 | 21.6 | 8.22 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | low |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $148.68 | 43.4 | 3.43 | Analyst | low |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $26.70 | 7.8 | 3.43 | Analyst | low |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.