HP Inc. (HPQ)
NYSEInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-09-04
$32.64+2.22%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HPQ
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -60.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 62.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 18 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
HPQ — CEO transition
Dated 2026-02-03
President and Chief Executive Officer — Enrique Lores: Mr. Lores has stepped down as President and CEO to pursue an opportunity outside of HP.
Why it matters: Keeping EPS guidance shows earnings are stable. This helps build investor confidence.
Supportive ifHP confirms EPS guidance remains between $2.47 and $2.77 during the fiscal year.
Worry ifHP revises EPS guidance down below $2.47 for FY 2026.
Why it matters: HP maintains EPS guidance of $2.47 to $2.77. Changes could signal growth issues.
Watch forManagement raises EPS guidance above $2.77 for FY 2026.
Also watch forEPS guidance drops below $2.47 for FY 2026.
Why it matters: A drop would mean HP's printing business still faces problems. This could hurt profits.
Worry ifPrinting revenue declines more than 3% year over year in Q4.
Less concerning ifPrinting revenue grows year over year in Q4.
Why it matters: Stable inventory shows better supply chain management and demand forecasting. It helps cash flow.
Supportive ifInventory days will be below 73 days in the next quarters.
Worry ifInventory days will be above 73 days in the next quarters.
Why it matters: A new CEO might change priorities and affect how investors feel.
Watch forAnnouncement of a permanent CEO before Q4 2026.
Also watch forNo permanent CEO appointed by Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if HP meets its financial goals and guidance.
Watch forEarnings report shows results in line with or better than guidance.
Also watch forEarnings report shows results below guidance.
Why it matters: News about the CEO search can affect investor trust and company plans.
Watch forA permanent CEO appointment will be announced.
Also watch forNo updates on the CEO search process for an extended period.
Why it matters: Hitting this target is important for HP's spending and returns to shareholders. It shows financial health.
Supportive ifFree cash flow reported at or above $2.8 billion for FY 2026.
Worry ifFree cash flow reported below $2.8 billion for FY 2026.
Why it matters: The EPS guidance will show if HP can maintain its growth momentum. A strong outlook supports investor confidence.
Supportive ifHP raises its fourth quarter GAAP diluted EPS guidance above $0.84.
Worry ifHP lowers its fourth quarter GAAP diluted EPS guidance below $0.74.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows HP can make cash and control costs well.
Supportive ifHP reports free cash flow of $3 billion or more for fiscal 2026.
Worry ifFree cash flow falls below $2.8 billion for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Growth in Personal Systems shows strong demand and new ideas in HP's products.
Supportive ifPersonal Systems revenue growth exceeds 15% year over year in the next quarter.
Worry ifPersonal Systems revenue growth falls below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Better margins mean HP manages costs well and works efficiently. This can increase profits.
Supportive ifHP reports a GAAP operating margin above 6% in the next quarter.
Worry ifGAAP operating margin falls below 5% in the next quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$198 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $406 loss on $10,000 · 4.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,662 loss on $10,000 · 36.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.