HP Inc. (HPQ)
NYSEInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-07-08
$23.77+3.53%
Close 2026-07-08 · 1-day change
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Track HPQ free→A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. Slower and deeper than the daily snapshot — it refreshes only when the evidence moves.
HPQ represents a durable compounder in the tech sector. The current thesis state is intact, but there are signs of management falling behind on key financial targets.
The market currently prices HPQ as cheap compared to its peers, with a low expectations gap. This suggests that investors may not be anticipating significant growth in the near term.
Fundamentals are likely to remain neutral in the near term, as management is behind on generating free cash flow and maintaining earnings per share guidance. There is a low probability of missing earnings expectations, but recent trends show a downward shift in earnings surprises.
The long-term thesis hinges on several factors, including the Fed's potential rate cuts and the performance of sector leaders like SNDK, DELL, and WDC. If HPQ cuts guidance, it could negatively impact sentiment and expectations.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, HPQ's performance will depend on external economic conditions and internal management execution. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Our read on the company is unchanged since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-07-08
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If EPS falls below this level, it indicates a significant earnings drop. This could lead to negative market reactions.
Confirms:Q3 GAAP diluted EPS reported below $0.47.
Disproves:Q3 GAAP diluted EPS reported above $0.63.
Why it matters: A miss on EPS could mean ongoing problems in making money as costs rise.
Confirms:Q3 non-GAAP diluted EPS was below $0.61.
Disproves:Q3 non-GAAP diluted EPS was above $0.71.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if HP meets its financial goals and guidance.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows results in line with or better than guidance.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows results below guidance.
Why it matters: Keeping EPS guidance shows earnings are stable. This helps build investor confidence.
Confirms:HP confirms EPS guidance remains between $2.47 and $2.77 during the fiscal year.
Disproves:HP revises EPS guidance down below $2.47 for FY 2026.
Why it matters: Slower revenue growth may show less demand in Personal Systems and Printing.
Confirms:Q3 revenue growth reported below 6% year over year.
Disproves:Q3 revenue growth reported above 9% year over year.
Why it matters: HP maintains EPS guidance of $2.47 to $2.77. Changes could signal growth issues.
Confirms one read:Management raises EPS guidance above $2.77 for FY 2026.
Confirms the other:EPS guidance drops below $2.47 for FY 2026.
Why it matters: A new CEO might change priorities and affect how investors feel.
Confirms one read:Announcement of a permanent CEO before Q4 2026.
Confirms the other:No permanent CEO appointed by Q4 2026.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Why it matters: Slow growth in Personal Systems may show problems in the main business area.
Confirms:Personal Systems revenue growth was below 10% YoY.
Disproves:Personal Systems revenue growth was above 10% YoY.
Why it matters: Having a permanent CEO may help management and clear up the strategy.
Confirms:Announcement of a new permanent CEO.
Disproves:No announcement of a new CEO by the end of Q3.
Why it matters: Strong free cash flow shows HP can make cash even with rising costs.
Confirms:Free cash flow exceeds $3.0 billion for FY 2026.
Disproves:Free cash flow reported below $2.8 billion for FY 2026.