Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-10-31 · fmp
$3.39 → $3.38 · observed estimates
HP Inc. (HPQ)
NYSEInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-11-04
$29.44-1.64%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for HPQ yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS of $2.15 to $2.45 in FY 2026 | A primary condition in HP Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $2.15 EPS in FY26. | Intact | EPS falls below $2.15 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $0.71 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.15 EPS in FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 27, 20260.71 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-10-31 · fmp
$3.39 → $3.38 · observed estimates
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 24, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
HPQ is a value-oriented, mature technology business rather than a high-growth thesis. Its long-term thesis is currently intact, with recent financial performance still in the top half of its industry, but risk is elevated and earnings quality is fragile.
The evidence describes HPQ as cheap versus peers, with a modest positive premium also indicated in the valuation data. The expectations gap is negative, which points to limited room for execution to disappoint, while the model’s valuation confidence is low. The priced-in assessment is marked justified, not as a case where all sources of fragility are concentrated.
Near term, management has maintained fiscal 2026 EPS guidance and raised its free cash flow range, while recent quarterly results included earnings beats. However, company momentum fell from 52.6 to 35.3, and a recent litigation filing adds a risk to monitor. Management continues to emphasize AI, customer satisfaction, innovation, and productivity, but disclosed progress measures are limited.
A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, especially given past estimate reductions and recent peer misses. On the favorable side, Fed rate cuts or stabilization in technology peers could support the sector backdrop. Over the multi-year view, execution on cash flow, EPS, and AI-related productivity remains central, but evidence of delivery on AI is limited.
For the next 1 to 3 years, HPQ presents a cheap-versus-peers valuation alongside an intact but fragile business thesis, with weakening momentum and elevated risk. The key test is whether management sustains its financial targets without a guidance cut. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 3 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “For fiscal 2026, HP is raising its estimate of GAAP diluted net EPS to be in the range of $2.52 to $2.62 and raising its estimate of non-GAAP diluted net EPS to be in the range of $3.19 to $3.29, with both including a $0.19 favorable impact from estimated tariff refunds.” “Asset management HP's net cash provided by operating activities in the third quarter of fiscal 2026 was $1.7 billion.”
Free cash flow of $2.8 to $3.0 billion in FY 2026 | It guides for $2.3 EPS and $2.9 billion free cash flow in FY26. | Under Pressure | Free cash flow falls below $2.8 billion in FY26 | Free cash flow: $1.548B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.8 billion FCF in FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 27, 20261,548,000,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “For fiscal 2026, HP is also raising its estimate of free cash flow to be in the range of $3.0 to $3.2 billion.” “Accounts receivable ended the quarter at $7.2 billion, up 3 days quarter over quarter to 41 days.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stable executive leadership | A supporting condition in HP Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is No further major executive departures in next 4 quarters. | Intact | Additional CEO or president departures occur | 0 major departures vs 0 allowed CEO transition to Emma Walmsley announced as orderly; no other major executive departures reported in recent filings or news. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth near 0.4% next 4 quarters | A supporting condition in HP Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= 0.4% YoY revenue growth next 4 quarters. | Intact | Revenue growth falls below 0.4% next 4 quarters | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$60.22B → $60.24B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-01 | $3.39 | $60,224,797,265 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.39 | $60,224,797,265 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.38 | $60,242,927,398 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.38 | $60,242,927,398 | 6 / 12 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 7 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.