HPQ
HP Inc.NYSEInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, HPQ has a composite score of 33.3 and a signal label of "favorable." This score is driven by high confidence in guidance credibility at 91.2 and a valuation score of 97.2, indicating it is considered inexpensive. However, the macro score is lower at 32.3, reflecting some unfavorable conditions, particularly related to rates and sector trends.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.07
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $0.63 → $0.63 (+0.1% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 12 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 24% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
5 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
2 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Generate $2.8 to $3.0 billion free cash flow in FY 2026capital allocationmixed65% progressprovisional
2/3: “HP anticipates generating free cash flow in the range of $2.8 to $3.0 billion.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Cash from operations was $383M in 2026-Q1, down from $1.62B in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress towards the $2.8-$3.0B FCF target for FY 2026.
- 2.Maintain EPS guidance of $2.47 to $2.77 for FY 2026growthmixed33% progressprovisional
2/3: “HP continues to expect GAAP diluted net EPS in the range of $2.47 to $2.77.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. EPS was $0.58 in 2026-Q1, down from $0.8 in 2025-Q3, suggesting challenges in maintaining the $2.47-$2.77 EPS range for FY 2026.
Guidance track record
Last 8 quarters of EPS guidance with actuals.
Per-quarter detail
| Period | Guidance | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-30 | $0.58 – $0.68 | $0.82 | beat |
| 2024-07-31 | $0.63 – $0.77 | $0.83 | beat |
| 2024-10-31 | $0.89 – $0.99 | $0.93 | inside |
| 2025-01-31 | $0.57 – $0.63 | $0.74 | beat |
| 2025-04-30 | $0.62 – $0.72 | $0.71 | inside |
| 2025-07-31 | $0.57 – $0.69 | $0.75 | beat |
| 2025-10-31 | $0.75 – $0.85 | $0.93 | beat |
| 2026-01-31 | $0.58 – $0.66 | $0.81 | beat |
Beat / inside / miss is computed from the guided range when issued; for point-estimate quarters a ±5% tolerance band around the mid is used. surprise_pct_vs_mid is unstable when guided EPS is near zero, so it is not surfaced as a headline.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 45%; 252d 35%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −37%. Bad day move −4%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLK) — 0.04 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 42/100, drawdown 27/100, beta 5/100, earnings vol —.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 88% of the last 8 guided quarters · 17.9% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Generate $2.8 to $3.0 billion free cash flow in FY 2026
Capital allocationHP aims to generate free cash flow between $2.8 billion and $3.0 billion for fiscal year 2026.
MixedStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Cash from operations was $383M in 2026-Q1, down from $1.62B in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress towards the $2.8-$3.0B FCF target for FY 2026.
65%CEO/CFO:“HP anticipates generating free cash flow in the range of $2.8 to $3.0 billion.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-02-03Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-02-03provisionalShow history (3)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“HP anticipates generating free cash flow in the range of $2.8 to $3.0 billion.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“HP anticipates generating free cash flow in the range of $2.8 to $3.0 billion.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“HP anticipates generating free cash flow in the range of $2.6 to $3.0 billion.”
- #2
Maintain EPS guidance of $2.47 to $2.77 for FY 2026
GrowthHP maintains its EPS guidance range of $2.47 to $2.77 for fiscal year 2026.
MixedStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. EPS was $0.58 in 2026-Q1, down from $0.8 in 2025-Q3, suggesting challenges in maintaining the $2.47-$2.77 EPS range for FY 2026.
33%CEO/CFO:“HP continues to expect GAAP diluted net EPS in the range of $2.47 to $2.77.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-02-03Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-02-03provisionalShow history (3)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“HP continues to expect GAAP diluted net EPS in the range of $2.47 to $2.77.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“HP estimates GAAP diluted net EPS to be in the range of $2.47 to $2.77.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“HP estimates GAAP diluted net EPS to be in the range of $2.32 to $2.62.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
HPQ HP Inc. | +33 | inexpensive | elevated |
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | +20 | full | moderate |
AAPL Apple Inc | +19 | full | moderate |
MSFT Microsoft | +27 | fair | elevated |
AVGO Broadcom | +11 | expensive | elevated |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If information_technology sector trend rises from +0.08 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-02-24)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-02-24)-8.0 pts
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)-7.3 pts
- If information_technology sector trend falls from +0.08 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2117d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 16, 2026, HP Inc. (“HP”) held its 2026 annual meeting of stockholders (the “2026 Annual Meeting”). At the 2026 Annual Meeting, as described further in
executive changeneutralscore 38 - 2026-02-242mo agoItem 2.02
and in the accompanying Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Exchange Act or the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. On February 24, 2026, HP Inc. (“HP”) issued a news release relating to the results of operations for its fiscal quarter end…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 12 - 2026-02-033mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 3, 2026, HP Inc. (“HP” or the “Company”) announced that Enrique Lores has stepped down as President and Chief Executive Officer and a member of the board of directors of HP (the “Board”), effective as of the end of day on February 2, 2026. Mr. Lores has elected to pursue an opportunity outside of HP. The Board has formed a CEO Search Co…
executive changeneutralscore 9 - 2026-02-033mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. The information set forth in
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 8 - 2025-12-294mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On October 1, 2025, HP Inc. (the “Company”) filed a Current Report on Form 8-K (the “Initial 8-K”) disclosing that Alex Cho will step down as President of Personal Systems, effective November 1, 2025, and remain with the Company to aid with the transition until December 31, 2025. Mr. Cho stepped down as President of Personal Systems on November 1,…
executive changeneutralscore 3
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.