Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Humana (HUM)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-11-04
$411.79-1.35%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
16.85 → 17.00 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 15 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 15 to 15; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for HUM yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Effective share buyback program execution | The company also announced a share buyback program, showing strong capital allocation. | Intact | Buyback program is halted or materially reduced | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 6, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a managed-care business with growth efforts in CenterWell and Medicaid, but its current profile is not a simple durable-growth story. The 1-to-3-year thesis is intact, while earnings quality is fragile, management execution is volatile, and overall risk is elevated.
Valuation is near peer levels, and the expectations gap is modestly negative, meaning expectations appear somewhat ahead of the evidence in the snapshot. The pricing signal is described as justified, not as a case where weak execution is combined with unusually expensive and turbulent conditions.
Recent financial performance is strong relative to the industry, and CenterWell’s patient base and Medicaid footprint have expanded. Near term, the main pressure is Star Ratings: adjusted EPS guidance stayed at least $9.00 through the second quarter, but GAAP EPS guidance was cut, and the legal challenge to the ratings decline was rejected. Earnings-surprise trends have weakened, although the stated near-term miss risk is low.
A key favorable signal would be management reversing course and raising guidance next quarter after the prior reduction noted in the evidence. The thesis also depends on managing Star Ratings pressure and sustaining CenterWell and Medicaid expansion. Weaker jobs data could increase recession concerns, while continued strong results from healthcare peers could support the sector backdrop.
For the next 1 to 3 years, HUM’s thesis has support from recent performance and expansion, but the outlook remains sensitive to Star Ratings, guidance execution, and economic conditions. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Humana keeps its EPS guidance at $9.00 for 2026. |
| Under Pressure |
| EPS guidance falls below $9.00 for FY 2026 |
Diluted EPS: $5.73 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=9.00 USD per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Jul 29, 20265.73 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth from Illinois Medicaid HealthChoice program | It won a big Illinois Medicaid contract that should boost revenue and margins. | Under Pressure | Revenue growth falls below 15% YoY in FY26 | Revenue growth: 26.18% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=15% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Jul 29, 202626.179449 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$16.13 → $17.00 · observed estimates
$169.29B → $167.79B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $16.13 | $169,292,702,749 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-07-25 | $16.13 | $169,292,702,749 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-07-26 | $16.13 | $169,292,702,749 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-07-27 | $16.13 | $169,292,702,749 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-07-28 | $16.16 | $169,292,702,749 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-07-29 | $16.16 | $169,292,702,749 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-07-30 | $16.03 | $169,925,387,440 | 26 / 21 |
| 2026-07-31 | $16.28 | $169,216,383,260 | 26 / 21 |
| 2026-08-01 | $16.60 | $168,861,321,288 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-02 | $16.60 | $168,715,999,174 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-03 | $16.48 | $169,450,817,490 | 26 / 21 |
| 2026-08-04 | $16.60 | $168,715,999,174 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-05 | $16.48 | $169,347,579,400 | 26 / 21 |
| 2026-08-06 | $16.48 | $169,347,579,400 | 26 / 21 |
| 2026-08-07 | $16.61 | $168,612,765,112 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-08 | $16.48 | $169,347,579,400 | 26 / 21 |
| 2026-08-09 | $16.61 | $168,612,765,112 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-10 | $16.48 | $169,347,579,400 | 26 / 21 |
| 2026-08-12 | $16.61 | $168,612,765,112 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-13 | $16.57 | $168,730,702,750 | 26 / 21 |
| 2026-08-14 | $16.61 | $168,612,765,112 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-15 | $16.61 | $168,612,765,112 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-16 | $16.61 | $168,612,765,112 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-17 | $16.61 | $168,612,765,112 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-18 | $16.61 | $168,612,765,112 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-19 | $16.61 | $168,612,765,112 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-20 | $16.72 | $167,995,896,168 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-21 | $16.72 | $167,995,896,168 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-22 | $16.72 | $167,995,896,168 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-23 | $16.72 | $167,995,896,168 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-08-24 | $16.72 | $167,995,896,168 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-08-25 | $16.72 | $167,995,896,168 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-08-26 | $16.72 | $167,995,896,168 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-08-27 | $16.72 | $167,995,896,168 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-08-28 | $16.72 | $167,995,896,168 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-08-29 | $16.72 | $167,819,782,815 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-08-30 | $16.72 | $167,819,782,815 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-08-31 | $16.72 | $167,819,782,815 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-01 | $16.72 | $167,819,782,815 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-02 | $16.72 | $167,819,782,815 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-03 | $16.72 | $167,819,782,815 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-04 | $16.72 | $167,819,772,853 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-09-05 | $16.72 | $167,819,772,853 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-09-06 | $16.72 | $167,819,772,853 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-09-07 | $16.72 | $167,819,772,853 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-09-08 | $16.72 | $167,819,772,853 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-09-09 | $16.72 | $167,819,782,815 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-09-10 | $16.72 | $167,819,782,815 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-09-11 | $16.72 | $167,819,782,815 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-09-12 | $16.72 | $167,819,782,815 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-09-13 | $16.72 | $167,819,782,815 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-09-14 | $16.72 | $167,819,782,815 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-09-15 | $16.72 | $167,819,782,815 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-09-16 | $16.72 | $167,819,782,817 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-09-17 | $16.72 | $167,819,782,817 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-09-18 | $16.72 | $167,819,782,817 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-09-19 | $16.72 | $167,819,782,817 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-09-20 | $16.83 | $167,801,878,055 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-09-21 | $16.83 | $167,801,878,055 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-09-22 | $16.83 | $167,801,878,055 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-09-23 | $16.83 | $167,801,878,055 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-09-24 | $16.83 | $167,801,878,055 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-09-25 | $16.83 | $167,658,354,246 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-09-26 | $16.85 | $167,658,354,246 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-09-27 | $16.85 | $167,658,354,246 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-09-28 | $16.85 | $167,658,354,246 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-09-29 | $16.85 | $167,658,354,246 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-09-30 | $16.85 | $167,658,354,259 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-01 | $16.85 | $167,658,354,259 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-02 | $16.85 | $167,658,354,259 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-03 | $16.85 | $167,658,354,259 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-04 | $16.85 | $167,658,354,259 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-05 | $16.85 | $167,658,354,259 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-06 | $16.85 | $167,666,797,116 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-07 | $16.85 | $167,666,797,116 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-08 | $16.93 | $167,562,125,687 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-09 | $16.93 | $167,562,125,687 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-10 | $16.93 | $167,562,125,687 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-11 | $17.12 | $167,562,125,687 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-12 | $17.12 | $167,562,125,687 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-13 | $16.96 | $167,788,562,514 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-14 | $16.96 | $167,788,552,552 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-10-15 | $16.96 | $167,788,552,552 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-10-16 | $16.96 | $167,788,552,552 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-10-17 | $16.96 | $167,788,552,552 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-10-18 | $16.96 | $167,788,552,552 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-10-19 | $16.96 | $167,788,552,552 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-10-20 | $16.96 | $167,788,552,552 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-10-21 | $16.96 | $167,788,552,552 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-10-22 | $16.96 | $167,788,552,552 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-10-23 | $16.96 | $167,788,552,552 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-10-24 | $16.96 | $167,788,552,552 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-10-25 | $16.96 | $167,788,552,552 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-10-26 | $16.96 | $167,788,552,552 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-10-27 | $16.96 | $167,788,552,552 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-10-28 | $16.96 | $167,788,552,552 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-10-29 | $17.00 | $167,788,552,552 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-10-30 | $17.00 | $167,788,552,552 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-10-31 | $17.00 | $167,788,552,552 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-11-01 | $17.00 | $167,788,552,552 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-11-02 | $17.00 | $167,788,552,552 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-11-03 | $17.00 | $167,788,552,552 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-11-04 | $17.00 | $167,788,552,552 | 15 / 16 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 16 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 9 recorded
6 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.