Humana (HUM)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-09-04
$401.54-1.23%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HUM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 2.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 9.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
HUM — litigation filed
Dated 2026-09-01
Regulation FD Disclosure. Members of Humana Inc.’s (the “Company”) senior management team are scheduled to meet with investors and analysts at various meetings between September 1, 2026 and September 30, 2026. During these meetings, the Company intends to reaffirm its guidance of at least $6.52 in diluted earnings per common share (“EPS”) or at least $9.00 in adjusted earnings per common share (“Adjusted EPS”), in each case for the year ending December 31, 2026 (“FY 2026”). This guidance is c…
Why it matters: Lawsuit results can change financial performance and guidance. Bad results may lower earnings expectations.
Worry ifLawsuit results are good, so management keeps guidance the same.
Less concerning ifLawsuit results cause a drop in EPS guidance.
Why it matters: Changes in Star Ratings affect earnings and bonuses. This impacts overall financial health.
Worry ifStar Ratings improve. This leads to better earnings and bonuses for Medicare Advantage.
Less concerning ifStar Ratings drop again. This negatively affects earnings guidance.
Why it matters: Growth in Medicare Advantage membership is key for revenue. Slow growth may mean competition or problems.
Worry ifHumana sees Medicare Advantage membership grow by at least 25% in 2025.
Less concerning ifMembership growth drops below 20% year-over-year. This may show a loss in market share.
Why it matters: Lower GAAP EPS guidance shows possible earnings challenges. This can hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifManagement revises GAAP EPS guidance to below $6.52 in the next earnings call.
Less concerning ifManagement maintains or raises GAAP EPS guidance above $6.52.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$132 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $439 loss on $10,000 · 4.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,690 loss on $10,000 · 46.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Star Ratings impact bonus payments and revenue. A decline could hurt financial performance and investor confidence.
Worry ifMedicare Advantage plans receive a Star Rating of 4 stars or higher.
Less concerning ifStar Ratings stay below 4 stars. This confirms ongoing problems.
Why it matters: A successful buyback shows confidence in the company's value. It can help share prices.
Supportive ifHumana announces it has finished its share buyback program and shares bought back.
Worry ifHumana stops or cancels the share buyback program without clear reasons.
Why it matters: The outcome could change Humana's revenue and operations. A good ruling may restore confidence.
Watch forCourt rules in favor of Humana regarding the Star Ratings lawsuit.
Also watch forCourt rules against Humana, confirming the decline in Star Ratings.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is key to reaching the new goal of at least $128 billion. This shows Humana's market strength and success.
Supportive ifRevenue reported for FY 2025 exceeds $128 billion.
Worry ifRevenue reported for FY 2025 falls short of $128 billion.
Why it matters: Raising revenue guidance shows growth. This can help investor confidence in the company.
Supportive ifHumana announces an increase in FY 2025 revenue guidance to at least $128 billion.
Worry ifHumana keeps FY 2025 revenue guidance under $128 billion, showing slower growth.
Why it matters: Updates on the share buyback program can signal management's confidence in the stock. It may also affect share price.
Supportive ifManagement announces an increase in the share buyback amount or pace.
Worry ifManagement stops or cuts the share buyback program.
Why it matters: The Star Ratings impact Humana's earnings. They also affect bonus payments for Medicare Advantage.
Worry ifHumana's Star Ratings for Medicare Advantage either improve or stay the same.
Less concerning ifStar Ratings decline further, worsening the earnings outlook for FY 2026.
Why it matters: Management's confidence in earnings is clear. They reaffirm the Adjusted EPS guidance.
Supportive ifIn meetings with investors, management says the FY 2026 Adjusted EPS will be at least $9.00.
Worry ifManagement lowers the FY 2026 Adjusted EPS to less than $9.00.
Why it matters: More CenterWell patients show that the company is growing. This means they are doing well.
Supportive ifCenterWell Senior Primary Care patient base grows by more than 25% year over year.
Worry ifCenterWell patient growth stops or falls compared to last year.