Humana (HUM)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-11-04
$411.79-1.35%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HUM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -5.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 13.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 18.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 4 industry peers
HUM — litigation filed
Dated 2026-10-09
Regulation FD Disclosure. Supplementary Audio Commentary Supplementary audio commentary from Humana’s President and Chief Executive Officer, Jim Rechtin, may be accessed via Humana’s Investor Relations page at https://humana.gcs-web.com/. 2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings Based on final 2027 Medicare Advantage (MA) Star Ratings data (Bonus Year 2028) provided by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) on October 8, 2026, Humana Inc. (“the Company”) has exceeded its goal of Top…
Why it matters: Humana guided to a 92.75% ratio, plus or minus 25 basis points. A higher ratio means more premium dollars go to care costs.
Worry ifA 2026 insurance benefit ratio above 93% confirms costs ran past the top of Humana's range.
Less concerning ifThe 2026 insurance benefit ratio is 93% or lower, within or below the guided range.
Why it matters: The deal is set to replace WCAS's stake and remove put arrangements. A close would test Humana's plan to gain capital and reduce balance-sheet liabilities.
Supportive ifHumana confirms the BlackRock joint venture closes by Dec. 31, 2026, and reports the removal of the old put arrangements.
Worry ifThe deal does not close by Dec. 31, 2026, or Humana reports that the old put arrangements remain in place.
Why it matters: Humana said Star Ratings cut into 2026 earnings. The 2027 ratings set bonus payments for 2028, so they offer a later test of quality progress.
Supportive ifHumana says its 2027 Medicare Advantage ratings meet or beat its goal for top-rated plans. It also names the share of members in those plans.
Worry ifHumana says its 2027 ratings miss its goal, or that fewer members qualify for top-rated plans.
Why it matters: Humana kept this goal in both recent reports, but its GAAP EPS floor fell to $6.52. The next report tests whether adjusted earnings stay on track.
Supportive ifOn Nov. 6, Humana keeps FY 2026 adjusted EPS guidance at $9 or higher and reports results in line with that path.
Worry ifHumana cuts FY 2026 adjusted EPS guidance below $9 or reports results that no longer support that floor.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$116 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $401 loss on $10,000 · 4.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,236 loss on $10,000 · 42.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.