Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
HYDROFARM HOLDINGS GROUP INC (HYFM)
NASDAQIndustrialsAgricultural - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-05
$0.73-3.52%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAgricultural - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for HYFM yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Gross margin >= 20% in FY25 | It aims for a gross margin above 20% in 2025. | Broken | gross margin falls below 20% in FY25 | Gross margin: 11.35% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=20% gross margin. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 14, 202611.348068 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 11, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk turnaround case, not a proven durable compounder. The thesis is in a watch state: management is reducing costs and taking steps on debt, but recent business performance remains weak.
The evidence snapshot provides no valuation or expectations data, so whether HYFM is cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers cannot be assessed. Recent performance is well below its industry cohort, and the broader evidence points to a weak business setup rather than a clear expectations gap.
Near term, revenue declined from $28.5 million in 2026-Q1 to $23.2 million in 2026-Q2, while the risk of another earnings miss is elevated. Cost control is progressing: adjusted SG&A fell 35.7% year over year in 2026-Q2, and gross margin rose to 11.3% from 6.4%, but these gains have not yet reversed the revenue decline.
The multi-year thesis depends on whether cost reductions and a stronger proprietary-brand mix can support better results while revenue stabilizes. Near term, a guidance cut would weaken the case; continued strength or weakness from sector bellwethers such as CAT, DE, and CNH could also affect the industrial-sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, HYFM’s case rests on turning cost and margin progress into sustained business improvement while managing financial pressure. The evidence is mixed, and near-term execution risk is high. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in HYDROFARM HOLDINGS GROUP INC's published investment case. The stated target is meaningful progress on liquidity and capital structure by end 2026. |
| Improving |
| no progress or worsening liquidity and capital structure through 2026 |
Debt reduced by $109M vs target of meaningful progress Hydrofarm eliminated $109M in debt via recapitalization, strengthening its capital structure and liquidity position. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The sale of APP marked a key milestone in the Company's exploration of strategic alternatives to strengthen its capital structure and enhance liquidity.” “In conjunction with the closing of the offering, the Company has entered into agreements with the holders of its Senior Secured Term Loan (the “Term Loan”) and the agent thereunder to issue 27.5 million shares of Series 1 Non-Voting Convertible Preferred Stock and common stock purchase warrants to purchase 27.5 million shares of common stock (“Lender Warrants”) to satisfy the Company’s Term Loan in full.” Revenue was $23.211 million in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Stabilize management and audit functions | A supporting condition in HYDROFARM HOLDINGS GROUP INC's published investment case. The stated target is maintain new auditor and stable leadership through 2026. | Intact | management turnover or audit issues recur in 2026 | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Address Nasdaq listing compliance | Hydrofarm is working to fix its money problems and Nasdaq listing issues. | Improving | failure to resolve Nasdaq listing issues by end 2026 | Pro forma equity >$2.5M vs >=$2.5M target Recapitalization eliminated $109M debt; pro forma equity exceeds $2.5M Nasdaq minimum, restoring compliance. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-3.96 → $-3.96 · observed estimates
$0.22B → $0.22B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-05 | $-3.96 | $219,040,537 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Monthly analyst history is unavailable.
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.