HYDROFARM HOLDINGS GROUP INC (HYFM)
NASDAQIndustrialsAgricultural - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
$0.95-6.47%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAgricultural - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HYFM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
A comparable price-assumption read is not available for this company.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
HYFM — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-14
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 14, 2026, Hydrofarm Holdings Group, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026. The full text of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Item 2.02 (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Excha…
Why it matters: Engaging a new accounting firm is key for compliance and could improve investor trust. This is a regulatory step that may impact future audits.
Watch forThe new accounting firm reports a clean audit opinion for fiscal 2026.
Also watch forThe audit shows major problems or delays in meeting requirements.
Why it matters: The result will impact cash flow and the company's financial health.
Watch forManagement shares news of a successful deal that boosts cash flow.
Also watch forManagement reports more problems with terms or cash flow issues.
Why it matters: Meeting the Forbearance Agreement terms would show better cash flow and financial control. Not meeting them could hurt the company's finances.
Supportive ifThe company meets all terms of the Forbearance Agreement. This includes the $1 million cash requirement.
Worry ifThe company does not meet any terms of the Forbearance Agreement. This shows serious financial problems.
Why it matters: Management aims to strengthen liquidity. This is crucial for ongoing operations and growth.
Supportive ifThe company says it has raised money or refinanced. This helps cash flow.
Worry ifThe company reports lower cash flow numbers or cannot get more money.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$316 on $10,000 · ±3.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,144 loss on $10,000 · 11.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $8,444 loss on $10,000 · 84.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A higher gross profit margin means better cost control and efficiency. It shows progress in making more money.
Supportive ifGross profit margin is above 6.4%. This shows better cost management.
Worry ifGross profit margin is at or below 6.4%. This shows ongoing operational problems.
Why it matters: The company is changing its accounting firm. This could affect how it reports finances.
Watch forThe company says it has hired a new independent accounting firm.
Also watch forThe company faces delays or issues in engaging the new accounting firm.
Why it matters: Hiring a new accounting firm is key for following rules and gaining investor trust.
Watch forHydrofarm announces successful completion of the audit by the new firm, CBIZ CPAs P.C.
Also watch forHydrofarm faces delays or issues with the audit process by CBIZ CPAs P.C.
Why it matters: If it drops below this level, demand may be getting worse. This shows ongoing revenue issues.
Worry ifQ3 net sales reported below $20 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 net sales reported above $20 million.
Why it matters: A higher margin means better profits and efficiency. This is true even with lower sales.
Supportive ifAdjusted Gross Profit Margin exceeds 20% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted Gross Profit Margin falls below 15% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Finishing this task would show better debt management and cash flow. This is key for the company’s money health.
Supportive ifProof that the Forbearance Agreement is done by August 31, 2026.
Worry ifFailure to complete the Forbearance Agreement by August 31, 2026.
Why it matters: A big drop in net sales shows problems in the hydroponics market.
Worry ifQ3 net sales decline worse than 40% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 net sales decline less than 40% year over year.
Why it matters: Finishing talks could help cash flow and make the company's finances stronger.
Supportive ifNews of talks finished with lenders about the Term Loan.
Worry ifFailure to reach an agreement with lenders, leading to further financial distress.
Why it matters: Cutting costs more can help make more money and show good management.
Supportive ifSG&A expenses decrease by more than 30% year over year in Q3.
Worry ifSG&A expenses increase or decline less than 30% year over year in Q3.