IBM (IBM)
NYSEInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$234.89+0.08%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · IBM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 10.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 6.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 38 industry peers
IBM — earnings in line
Dated 2026-07-22
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. The registrant’s press release dated July 22, 2026, regarding its financial results for the period ended June 30, 2026, including consolidated financial statements for the period ended June 30, 2026, is Exhibit 99.1 of this Form 8-K. In an effort to provide investors with additional information regarding the company’s results as determined by generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP), the company has disclosed in the attached press release…
Why it matters: More growth in AI consulting services shows strong demand for IBM's AI skills and advice.
Supportive ifConsulting revenue grew over 5% compared to last year, thanks to AI services.
Worry ifConsulting revenue growth reported below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: IBM's consulting revenue is stable. This shows that demand for their services is coming back. It has been hard to predict.
Supportive ifConsulting revenue grows year over year for two consecutive quarters.
Worry ifConsulting revenue falls for two straight quarters compared to the previous year.
Why it matters: Strong performance of z17 shows that people are using IBM's latest technology.
Supportive ifInfrastructure revenue from z17 reported above 20% growth year over year.
Worry ifInfrastructure revenue from z17 reported below 10% growth year over year.
Why it matters: Strong growth in AI and hybrid cloud indicates IBM's competitive position. It reflects client demand for these technologies.
Watch forAI and hybrid cloud revenue growth reported above 15%.
Also watch forAI and hybrid cloud revenue growth reported below 5%.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$147 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $338 loss on $10,000 · 3.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,750 loss on $10,000 · 37.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Reaching this target would show IBM's ability to generate cash and support its growth strategy.
Supportive ifFree cash flow reported at or above $14 billion for the year.
Worry ifFree cash flow reported below $14 billion for the year.
Why it matters: Earnings results will provide insight into revenue growth and cash flow performance.
Watch forEarnings report shows strong revenue growth and cash flow.
Also watch forEarnings report indicates weak revenue growth and cash flow.
Why it matters: Good z17 performance shows strong demand for IBM's new infrastructure and AI tools.
Supportive ifz17 revenue growth reported above 20% year over year.
Worry ifz17 revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Exceeding 5% growth would confirm IBM's strong momentum and management's guidance for the year.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth reported above 5% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth reported below 5% year over year.