IBM (IBM)
NYSEInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$247.11-2.84%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · IBM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 8.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 4.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 23 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
IBM — earnings in line
Dated 2026-07-22
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. The registrant’s press release dated July 22, 2026, regarding its financial results for the period ended June 30, 2026, including consolidated financial statements for the period ended June 30, 2026, is Exhibit 99.1 of this Form 8-K. In an effort to provide investors with additional information regarding the company’s results as determined by generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP), the company has disclosed in the attached press release…
Why it matters: IBM aims to raise free cash flow by more than $1 billion year over year. The full-year result will show whether the plan is on track.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 free cash flow is more than $1 billion above 2025.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 free cash flow is up $1 billion or less from 2025.
Why it matters: Management lowered its full-year growth view to 4%–5%. Revenue below 4% would show the growth plan is losing pace.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 revenue growth, adjusted for currency, is below 4%.
Less concerning ifFull-year 2026 constant-currency revenue growth is at least 4%, within or above the stated range.
Why it matters: IBM’s 20-day return lagged the sector signal. A smaller gap or a lead would mark a change in recent relative performance.
Supportive ifIBM’s 20-day relative performance versus XLK rises from -0.0835 to zero or higher.
Worry ifIBM’s 20-day relative performance versus XLK stays below -0.0835.
Why it matters: IBM disclosed a 2026-Q3 earnings beat on October 21. The next report can show whether growth and cash gains continue.
Watch forThe next results show revenue growth at or above 4% and free cash flow up more than $1 billion for 2026.
Also watch forThe next results show revenue growth below 4% or free cash flow up $1 billion or less for 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$133 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $350 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,750 loss on $10,000 · 37.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.