IBM (IBM)
NYSEInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-07-07
$306.14+2.21%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $306.14. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $306 the market pays 26× p/e — above the 11× p/e peer median but in line with its own 22× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $243 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts target $215–$350. The flat-multiple read looks rich, but earnings are inflecting up — trailing growth is accelerating and forward estimates confirm — so we've softened our read rather than brand an accelerating name expensive. Not investment advice.
$215.00 – $350.00 (median $305.00) · 12 analysts · as of 2026-06-23
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 17% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 7.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $10.47/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $305.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $375.53 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $369.26 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $96.33 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $111.45 | 8.9 | 12.47 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $136.38 | 11.5 | 11.88 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $70.87 | 1.0 | 72.38 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $104.43 | 8.8 | 11.88 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $72.93 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $258.13 | 21.7 | 11.88 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $140.55 | 11.5 | 12.24 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $147.17 | 8.9 | 16.47 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $164.38 | 11.5 | 14.32 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $81.69 | 1.0 | 83.43 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $125.87 | 8.8 | 14.32 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $311.15 | 21.7 | 14.32 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $177.14 | 8.9 | 19.83 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $177.80 | 11.5 | 15.49 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $88.36 | 1.0 | 90.24 | guidance | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $136.14 | 8.8 | 15.49 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $336.54 | 21.7 | 15.49 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.