Intercontinental Exchange (ICE)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$161.26-2.02%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Operating expenses within guided range: FY26 opex guidance $5.14B-$5.18B vs $5.14B target.
ICE grows mortgage technology revenue with new AI and carbon market products. Operating expenses stay within guided $5.1 billion range. Capital spending is controlled near $765 million. Earnings beat with 20% revenue growth last quarter.
Mortgage market headwinds could slow tech revenue growth. Operating expenses might rise above guidance. Capital spending could increase, pressuring cash flow.
The price is about 0% below our $138 fair value. Analysts expect about -8% revenue growth, but we see potential for low-to-mid single-digit growth in mortgage tech revenue.
Breaks if: capital expenditures exceed $790 million in FY26
Breaks if: growth falls below 3% YoY in FY26
expenses exceed $5.145 billion in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment is characterized as a durable compounder. The current thesis state reflects a stable outlook, but recent mixed signals from management and sector performance warrant close monitoring.
The valuation appears expensive compared to peers, with a significant premium. The market seems to expect continued strong performance, but this expectation may be unjustified given the recent mixed results.
Fundamentals are likely to show stable growth in recurring revenue, particularly in exchanges and fixed income. However, there is a moderate risk due to the company's recent history of misses, which could impact future performance.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like SPGI, CME, and MCO. If these companies continue to perform well, ICE may benefit from sector momentum, but any negative guidance from them could pose risks.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this improvement. The company is also expanding through acquisitions, which enhances growth potential. There are no new threats identified that could weaken the outlook.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Continue to manage operating expenses within the guided range for 2026.
Overall, ICE's position is stable, but investors should remain vigilant about sector trends and management execution. Not investment advice.