Intercontinental Exchange (ICE)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$161.26-2.02%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ICE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 30.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| -10.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 40.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers
ICE — credit agreement
Dated 2026-08-21
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Amended Revolving Credit Facility Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (the “ Company ”) is a party to that certain Credit Agreement, dated as of April 3, 2014 (as amended by (i) the First Amendment to Credit Agreement, dated as of May 15, 2015, (ii) the Second Amendment to Credit Agreement, dated as of November 9, 2015, (iii) the Third Amendment to Credit Agreement, dated as of November 13, 2015, (iv) the Fourth Amendment to Credit Agreement, dated as o…
Why it matters: The FOMC's choice can change market conditions and trading volumes. This affects ICE's revenue.
Watch forFOMC raises interest rates, which leads to more trading volumes.
Also watch forFOMC keeps rates steady, which results in lower trading volumes.
Why it matters: More buybacks show trust in cash flow. They also help shareholders.
Supportive ifICE increases share repurchases to $400 million per quarter.
Worry ifShare repurchases remain at or below $350 million per quarter.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in the financial sector.
Worry ifSector revenue growth falls below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above 12% year over year.
Why it matters: Finishing these sales is key for getting approval for the Black Knight deal.
Supportive ifICE will finish selling Optimal Blue and Empower in the next 20 days.
Worry ifSales are delayed past the expected 20 days.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$110 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $238 loss on $10,000 · 2.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,960 loss on $10,000 · 29.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Updates on capital spending will show how well ICE manages its investments and costs.
Worry ifICE reports capital spending below the $740 million to $790 million range.
Less concerning ifICE reports capital spending within or above the $740 million to $790 million range.
Why it matters: ICE needs to manage costs well to stay profitable while it grows.
Worry ifOperating costs were below the guidance range of $5.095 billion to $5.145 billion.
Less concerning ifOperating costs were above the guidance range of $5.095 billion to $5.145 billion.
Why it matters: High capital spending may mean aggressive growth plans. It could also show poor control.
Watch forCapital spending in Q2 is over $100 million.
Also watch forCapital spending is under $50 million in Q2.
Why it matters: Finalizing the exchange offer is important for ICE. It will help reduce debt and improve financial flexibility.
Supportive ifICE exchanges over $500 million of BK Notes by June 3, 2024.
Worry ifLess than $500 million of BK Notes are exchanged by the expiration date.
Why it matters: Recurring revenue growth shows the stability of ICE's business. It is a sign of customer trust and market position.
Supportive ifRecurring revenue grows by more than 10% year over year in Q2.
Worry ifRecurring revenue growth is less than 5% year over year in Q2.
Why it matters: How well this exchange offer goes will affect ICE's debt and cash flow. It shows how much investors trust ICE's financial management.
Supportive ifMore than 75% of the outstanding BK Notes are tendered by the Early Tender Deadline.
Worry ifLess than 50% of the outstanding BK Notes are tendered by the Early Tender Deadline.
Why it matters: Higher operating expenses can hurt profits. They may also show poor cost control.
Worry ifOperating expenses rise more than 5% from the last quarter.
Less concerning ifOperating expenses go up by 3% or less from the last quarter.
Why it matters: The elections will decide how merger payments are shared. This will affect ICE's finances.
Watch forFinal election results show that over 50% of Black Knight stockholders chose cash.
Also watch forFinal election results show that less than 50% of stockholders chose cash.
Why it matters: Higher operating expenses may show problems with cost management. This can hurt profits.
Worry ifIn Q2 2026, GAAP operating costs were more than $1.290 billion.
Less concerning ifIn Q2 2026, GAAP operating costs were less than $1.280 billion.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how ICE is doing and its growth in mortgage tech revenue.
Supportive ifQ2 earnings show mortgage tech revenue grew more than 10% from last year.
Worry ifMortgage technology revenue growth is below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Slower growth in this segment could indicate challenges in a key area for ICE's strategy.
Worry ifMortgage technology revenue growth was under 5% from last year.
Less concerning ifMortgage technology revenue growth was over 5% from last year.
Why it matters: Management's view on capital expenditures will show their plans for growth and investment. This impacts future performance.
Watch forManagement says they plan to cut spending on capital projects in Q2.
Also watch forManagement says they plan to raise spending on capital projects in Q2.
Why it matters: Managing costs is key for making money. It shows ICE is good with money.
Supportive ifQ3 operating costs are between $1.298 billion and $1.308 billion.
Worry ifOperating costs go over $1.308 billion.
Why it matters: Growth in recurring revenue signals strong demand for ICE's services. It reflects the health of the business.
Supportive ifRecurring revenue in fixed income grows by 7% to 8% in Q3.
Worry ifRecurring revenue growth falls below 7% in the fixed income segment.
Why it matters: Closing this deal will enhance ICE's fixed income platform. It aims to create a more connected trading ecosystem.
Supportive ifThe acquisition will close in the first half of 2027. It will have all needed approvals.
Worry ifThe deal does not close due to regulatory or shareholder problems.
Why it matters: Changes in dividends show how management views cash flow and finances after the deal.
Watch forICE plans to raise dividends after the MarketAxess deal.
Also watch forICE cuts dividends or does not increase them after the acquisition.