Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
$1.38 → $1.38 · observed estimates
I3 Verticals, Inc. (IIIV)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
$19.36+1.79%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.38 → 1.38 EPS · FY ending Sep 30, 2028 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for IIIV yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA at least $61 million in fiscal 2026 | A primary condition in I3 Verticals, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $61 million. | Under Pressure | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $61 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
$1.38 → $1.38 · observed estimates
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 16, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a recurring-revenue software business with a multi-year view that depends on steady growth and disciplined margins. The thesis is intact, though recent performance has been mixed and the risk level is high.
The valuation is described as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative, suggesting market expectations are cautious. The evidence does not specify exactly what investors expect, so that gap is difficult to interpret with confidence.
Near term, the recent earnings miss and previously lowered guidance are important risks. Over the multi-year view, annualized recurring revenue grew 8.3% year over year, while adjusted EBITDA margin improved slightly from the prior year but has shown a mixed trend. Management is making progress on recurring revenue and share repurchases, while margin execution remains less clear.
A guidance increase next quarter would signal a recovery from the earlier reduction; continued weakness would challenge the near-term setup. The broader environment also matters: rate cuts or stabilization among major technology companies could support the sector, while the recent agreement and related financial-obligation filing add uncertainty.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis rests on continued recurring-revenue growth and better margin consistency, despite near-term execution and risk concerns. The evidence supports an intact but uncertain multi-year view. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in I3 Verticals, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $221 million. |
| Under Pressure |
| Revenue falls below $221 million in FY26 |
Revenue: $53.067M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $221 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 202653,067,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Share repurchase program up to $100 million | A supporting condition in I3 Verticals, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Repurchase up to $100 million. | Intact | Company cancels or fails to execute $100 million buyback program | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “"We have now repurchased more than 20% of our outstanding shares under share repurchase programs since October 2024, reflecting our long-term confidence in the direction of our business."” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.24B → $0.24B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | $1.38 | $244,315,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.38 | $244,315,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.38 | $244,315,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.38 | $244,315,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.38 | $244,315,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.38 | $244,315,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.38 | $244,315,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.38 | $244,315,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.38 | $244,315,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.38 | $244,315,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.38 | $244,315,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.38 | $244,315,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.38 | $244,315,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.38 | $244,315,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.38 | $244,315,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.38 | $244,315,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.38 | $244,315,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.38 | $244,315,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.38 | $244,315,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.38 | $244,315,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.38 | $244,315,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.38 | $244,315,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.38 | $244,315,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.38 | $244,315,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.38 | $244,315,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.38 | $244,315,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.38 | $244,315,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.38 | $244,315,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.38 | $244,315,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.38 | $244,315,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.38 | $244,315,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.38 | $244,315,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.38 | $244,315,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.38 | $244,315,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.38 | $244,315,500 | 2 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.