I3 Verticals, Inc. (IIIV)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
$16.60+0.36%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · IIIV
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -45.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 4.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 49.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 68 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
IIIV — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
and 7.01 of this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2 hereto) shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, nor shall such information be deemed to be incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Why it matters: Better margins show improved cost management. This is important for making more money.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is over 25.1% in Q4.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin falls below 25.1% in Q4.
Why it matters: Another cut in revenue estimates shows ongoing problems in making money. This shows how management feels.
Worry ifManagement lowers fiscal year 2026 revenue guidance to below $216M-$221M.
Less concerning ifManagement keeps or raises fiscal year 2026 revenue guidance.
Why it matters: Falling below this revenue level could show bigger growth problems. Revenue is key for investor trust.
Worry ifQ3 revenue reported below $53 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue reported at or above $53 million.
Why it matters: Going over the repurchase target shows strong management confidence. It shows a commitment to giving value back to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company has bought back more than $100 million in shares.
Worry ifShare repurchases stay below $100 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$146 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $466 loss on $10,000 · 4.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,168 loss on $10,000 · 51.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Progress on the buyback program can signal management's confidence in the company's value. Slow buyback could indicate caution.
Supportive ifManagement says they finished a big part of the $100 million buyback program.
Worry ifNo big buyback activity was reported in Q3.
Why it matters: A drop in adjusted diluted earnings per share may show weaker profits. This could worry investors about future earnings.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted diluted earnings per share is below $0.32.
Less concerning ifQ3 adjusted diluted earnings per share is above $0.32. This shows strong earnings.
Why it matters: Higher EBITDA guidance means better profit expectations. This may help stock sentiment.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA guidance is now more than $61 million.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA guidance is now less than $61 million.
Why it matters: This will show if the company can maintain its growth trend. A drop below this level may signal weakness in recurring revenue streams.
Worry ifQ3 revenue from continuing operations grows less than 3.6% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue from continuing operations grows more than 3.6% year over year.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth slows, it may impact I3 Verticals' performance. This could signal broader challenges.
Worry ifSector revenue growth drops below its median value.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median value.
Why it matters: Meeting or beating earnings expectations can raise investor confidence. It shows the company is doing well.
Supportive ifQ4 earnings per share exceeds $0.25.
Worry ifQ4 earnings per share falls below $0.25.
Why it matters: Stable ARR growth signals strong demand for the company's services. It shows the company's ability to grow its recurring revenue base.
Supportive ifARR growth rate exceeds 8% year over year for the next quarter.
Worry ifARR growth rate falls below 8% year over year for the next quarter.
Why it matters: Better margins show improved cost management and efficiency. This can help profits and investor trust.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin exceeds 25% in the next quarter.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin drops below 25% in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Updates on the share buyback program reflect management's confidence in the company's value. It can support stock price.
Supportive ifManagement announces more share buybacks beyond the current 20%.
Worry ifManagement stops or cuts the share buyback program.