Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Independent Bank Corp. (INDB)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$84.40-2.34%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
8.31 → 8.35 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for INDB yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Execute $200 million stock buyback plan | Independent Bank keeps buying back stock with a $200 million plan. | Intact | Buyback plan execution falls significantly behind $200 million target | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a regional banking business with a measured, execution-led thesis rather than a clear turnaround or high-growth story. The current thesis state is watch: recent performance remains below its industry cohort, but has not freshly broken.
The valuation is described as cheap versus peers, with a small expectations gap and pricing tagged as justified. The evidence points to limited fragility, though it flags weak execution quality as a concern.
Near term, results show progress: third-quarter net income rose from the prior quarter, and management reported higher diluted earnings per share. Share repurchases are continuing, but nonperforming loans increased; that mixed asset-quality picture and a recent risk-label change warrant attention over the coming quarters.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis depends on whether earnings and profitability gains continue while asset quality remains manageable. Sector conditions also matter: rate cuts could weigh on financial companies, while stronger or weaker results from sector bellwethers could support or weaken the sector backdrop.
INDB has some evidence of improving execution and ongoing capital returns, but recent performance below peers and rising nonperforming loans keep the multi-year view conditional. The key test is sustained profitability without further asset-quality pressure. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Dividends rose 8.5% to $0.64 per share. |
| Intact |
| Dividend per share falls below $0.64 |
Dividend per share: $0.64 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Quarterly dividend at least $0.64 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 20260.64 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Net interest margin near 3.9% | Net interest margin improved to 3.9%. | Intact | Net interest margin falls below 3.62% | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain operating income near $82 million | Profit grew with operating income near $82 million. | Intact | Operating income falls below $77 million | Operating income: $117.028M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Operating income >= $82 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 15, 2026117,028,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$8.28 → $8.35 · observed estimates
$1.09B → $1.08B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $8.28 | $1,093,592,600 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $8.30 | $1,085,553,750 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $8.30 | $1,085,553,750 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $8.30 | $1,090,043,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $8.30 | $1,085,553,750 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $8.31 | $1,090,043,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $8.31 | $1,085,553,750 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $8.31 | $1,085,553,750 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $8.31 | $1,090,043,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $8.31 | $1,085,553,750 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $8.31 | $1,090,043,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $8.31 | $1,085,553,750 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $8.31 | $1,085,553,750 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $8.31 | $1,085,553,750 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $8.31 | $1,090,043,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $8.31 | $1,090,043,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $8.31 | $1,085,553,750 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $8.31 | $1,090,043,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $8.31 | $1,090,043,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $8.31 | $1,087,623,000 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $8.31 | $1,090,043,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $8.31 | $1,090,043,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $8.31 | $1,090,043,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $8.31 | $1,090,043,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $8.31 | $1,090,043,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $8.31 | $1,090,043,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $8.31 | $1,087,623,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $8.31 | $1,087,623,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $8.31 | $1,087,623,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $8.31 | $1,087,623,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $8.31 | $1,087,623,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $8.31 | $1,087,623,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $8.31 | $1,087,623,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $8.31 | $1,087,623,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $8.31 | $1,087,623,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $8.31 | $1,087,623,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $8.31 | $1,087,623,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $8.31 | $1,087,623,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $8.31 | $1,087,623,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $8.31 | $1,087,623,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $8.31 | $1,087,623,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $8.31 | $1,087,623,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $8.31 | $1,087,623,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $8.31 | $1,087,623,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $8.31 | $1,087,623,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $8.31 | $1,087,623,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $8.31 | $1,087,623,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $8.31 | $1,087,623,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $8.31 | $1,087,623,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $8.31 | $1,087,623,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $8.31 | $1,087,623,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $8.31 | $1,087,623,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $8.31 | $1,087,623,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $8.31 | $1,087,623,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $8.31 | $1,087,623,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $8.31 | $1,087,623,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $8.31 | $1,087,623,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $8.31 | $1,087,623,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $8.31 | $1,087,623,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $8.31 | $1,087,623,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $8.31 | $1,087,623,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $8.31 | $1,087,703,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $8.31 | $1,087,703,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $8.31 | $1,087,703,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $8.31 | $1,087,703,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $8.31 | $1,087,703,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $8.31 | $1,087,703,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $8.31 | $1,087,703,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $8.31 | $1,087,703,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $8.31 | $1,087,703,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $8.31 | $1,087,703,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $8.31 | $1,087,703,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $8.31 | $1,087,703,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $8.28 | $1,087,703,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $8.25 | $1,083,536,680 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $8.25 | $1,083,536,680 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $8.24 | $1,083,536,680 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $8.24 | $1,083,536,680 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $8.24 | $1,083,536,680 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $8.24 | $1,083,536,680 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $8.24 | $1,083,536,680 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $8.24 | $1,083,536,680 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $8.24 | $1,083,536,680 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $8.24 | $1,083,536,680 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $8.24 | $1,083,536,680 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $8.31 | $1,084,803,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $8.31 | $1,084,803,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $8.33 | $1,082,383,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $8.33 | $1,082,383,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $8.33 | $1,082,383,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $8.35 | $1,083,117,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $8.35 | $1,083,117,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $8.35 | $1,083,117,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $8.35 | $1,083,117,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $8.35 | $1,083,117,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $8.35 | $1,083,117,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $8.35 | $1,083,117,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $8.35 | $1,083,117,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $8.35 | $1,083,117,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $8.35 | $1,083,117,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $8.35 | $1,083,117,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $8.35 | $1,083,117,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $8.35 | $1,083,117,000 | 5 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.