Independent Bank Corp. (INDB)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$83.90+1.23%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · INDB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 3.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -5.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 9.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
INDB — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-16
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION On July 16, 2026 Independent Bank Corp. (the "Company") announced by press release its earnings for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this Item 2.02 (including Exhibit 99.1) is being furnished pursuant to
Why it matters: Regular news about dividends shows the company is doing well. It promises to give value back to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company announces a dividend increase to more than $0.64 per share.
Worry ifCompany announces a dividend cut below $0.64 per share.
Why it matters: Finishing the buyback plan shows good money management. It also shows care for shareholders.
Supportive ifTotal share repurchases reach $200 million by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifShare repurchases stall and remain below $151 million by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows the company is stable. It also shows they care about shareholders.
Supportive ifQuarterly dividend remains at $0.64 per share for Q3.
Worry ifThe dividend is cut below $0.64 per share. This shows possible financial strain.
Why it matters: A big drop in loan balances may show weak demand or credit problems.
Worry ifLoan balances decrease more than 1.5% compared to Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifLoan balances remain stable or increase compared to Q2 2026.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$88 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $213 loss on $10,000 · 2.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,430 loss on $10,000 · 14.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth may show bigger economic problems. These could affect the bank's performance.
Worry ifSector revenue growth drops below its median of 13%.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median of 13%.
Why it matters: Raising the dividend shows strong finances. It also helps boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifDividend rises to $0.68 or more. This shows strong cash flow and profit.
Worry ifDividend stays at $0.64 or drops. This suggests possible financial trouble.
Why it matters: A big drop in deposits may show weak customer trust and hurt liquidity.
Worry ifTotal deposits decline more than 1.5% in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifTotal deposits increase or decline less than 1.5% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings reports provide insights into financial health and performance trends. Investors will look for growth signals.
Watch forEarnings per share (EPS) increases compared to $1.63 reported in Q1 2026.
Also watch forEPS declines or stays below $1.63.
Why it matters: A steady dividend shows strong finances. It promises to give value back to shareholders.
Supportive ifDividend remains at $0.64 per share or increases.
Worry ifDividend is cut or not maintained at $0.64 per share.
Why it matters: A drop in net interest margin could hurt profits. It may also show pressure on loan yields.
Worry ifNet interest margin falls below 3.85% in Q3.
Less concerning ifNet interest margin stays stable or goes above 3.85%.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company can keep making money after a recent miss.
Watch forQ3 earnings report shows net income above $81.8 million.
Also watch forQ3 earnings report shows net income below $81.8 million.
Why it matters: More charge-offs can mean lower asset quality. This can hurt investor trust.
Worry ifNet charge-offs exceed $1 million in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifNet charge-offs remain below $1 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Growth in operating income shows the bank can make more money. This is important for investor trust.
Supportive ifQ2 operating income is higher than the $82.1 million from Q1.
Worry ifQ2 operating income falls or stays under $82.1 million.
Why it matters: A drop in net income shows possible problems with making money and execution.
Worry ifQ3 net income was below $79 million. This is a drop from Q2.
Less concerning ifQ3 net income remains at or above $79 million, showing stability or growth.
Why it matters: An increase shows good capital management. It also shows a promise to return value.
Supportive ifDividend is raised above $0.64 per share in Q3 2026.
Worry ifDividend remains at $0.64 per share in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Stable asset quality is key for keeping investor trust and making money.
Worry ifNonperforming loans fall below $100 million.
Less concerning ifNonperforming loans rise above $110 million.
Why it matters: Completing the buyback plan shows good money management. It focuses on giving value back.
Supportive ifTotal shares repurchased hits 2.68 million in the buyback plan.
Worry ifBuyback activity slows down a lot or stops.
Why it matters: These costs may affect profits and operating income next quarter.
Worry ifCore conversion costs are under $2 million. This shows good cost management.
Less concerning ifCore conversion costs are over $2 million. This may strain profits.
Why it matters: An increase in nonperforming loans could signal asset quality issues for the bank.
Worry ifNonperforming loans are stable or lower. This shows better management of assets.
Less concerning ifNonperforming loans rise above $103.6 million. This suggests worse asset quality.