Ingredion (INGR)
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$101.26-0.41%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Adjusted EPS between $10.45 and $11.15: FY26 EPS guidance $9.15-$9.75 vs $10.45 target.
Ingredion is growing steadily with $9.9B revenue guidance for FY27. Adjusted EPS is expected near $11.15 in 2026. The $3.6B Tate & Lyle acquisition strengthens its market position. The stock trades cheaply with a P/E of 9.4 versus peers at 17.5.
Operational issues like the Cabo facility closure hurt earnings. Q1 2026 EPS missed by 5.3%. The company faces volatile management and cost pressures. Revenue growth is weak, with a 1% decline in Q1 2026.
The market prices Ingredion about 32% below our fair value near $145. Analysts expect modest 2.7% revenue growth. Our view is more optimistic on growth and margin recovery after the acquisition.
Breaks if: adjusted EPS falls below $10.45 in FY26
Breaks if: Acquisition integration fails or materially delays growth
Breaks if: impairment charges exceed $50M in Q2 2026
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on long-term growth through strategic acquisitions and operational optimization. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent financial performance and management's commitment to key priorities.
The market currently prices INGR as cheap compared to peers, reflecting a low expectations gap. This suggests that investors are not fully factoring in the potential benefits from management's strategic initiatives and the sector's performance.
Fundamentals are expected to remain stable, driven by management's execution on growth priorities like the acquisition of Tate & Lyle and the performance of the Texture & Healthful Solutions segment. However, there is a moderate risk due to recent misses in earnings across the industry.
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to integrate the Tate & Lyle acquisition successfully and the overall performance of the Consumer Staples sector. Additionally, inflation trends and the performance of sector peers will be critical to watch.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports the outlook for growth. Full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance is now set between $10.45 and $11.15. The acquisition of Tate & Lyle is progressing well, with significant synergies expected.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: revenue falls below $9.0B in FY27
Over the next 1 to 3 years, INGR's performance will depend on effective execution of its strategic priorities and external economic factors. Not investment advice.