Ingredion (INGR)
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$97.42+0.06%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · INGR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -23.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 24.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 15 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
INGR — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-05
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 5, 2026, Ingredion Incorporated (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing the Company’s condensed consolidated financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 (the “Press Release”). A copy of the Company’s Press Release is being furnished as Exhibit 99 and hereby incorporated by reference. The Company will host a conference call Thursday, November 5, 2026 at 8 a.m. CT/ 9 a.m. ET to discuss the third quarter financia…
Why it matters: LATAM operating income fell 7% in Q2, as Mexican currency effects and weaker demand hurt results. A further decline would add pressure to earnings.
Worry ifQ3 LATAM operating income is below $118 million, the Q2 2026 level. It is also below the year-ago quarter.
Less concerning ifQ3 LATAM operating income is at least $118 million and grows year over year.
Why it matters: The segment has posted nine straight quarters of volume growth. More growth would back management’s focus on specialty ingredients.
Supportive ifQ3 Texture & Healthful Solutions sales volume grows year over year, extending the run to ten quarters.
Worry ifQ3 Texture & Healthful Solutions sales volume is flat or down year over year.
Why it matters: The deal plan calls for $130 million in yearly savings by the end of 2030. Clear milestones would support the case for the deal’s added value.
Supportive ifA company filing or earnings report gives a dated savings plan. It shows progress toward $130 million yearly by 2030.
Worry ifA filing or earnings report cuts the $130 million savings goal or pushes full delivery past 2030.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$86 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $171 loss on $10,000 · 1.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,144 loss on $10,000 · 21.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.