Ingredion (INGR)
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$101.26-0.41%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · INGR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -20.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 0.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 21.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 28 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
INGR — CFO transition
Dated 2026-08-20
CFO — Diego Reynoso: The filing reports the appointment of an external candidate, Diego Reynoso, as the new CFO, succeeding the interim CFO.
Why it matters: Completing this acquisition is key for Ingredion's growth and market position. It will enhance their product offerings and geographic reach.
Supportive ifTate & Lyle shareholders approve the purchase. All approvals must be in place by the end of 2027.
Worry ifThe purchase has big regulatory issues. Tate & Lyle shareholders might say no to the offer.
Why it matters: These charges will affect finances and show the company's new direction.
Worry ifIngredion reports about $36 million in losses in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifImpairment charges are much lower than $36 million or not reported.
Why it matters: This acquisition will help Ingredion in specialty ingredients. It is likely to boost earnings and cut costs.
Supportive ifThe acquisition and integration planning will finish in the second half of 2027.
Worry ifDelays in getting approvals or buying the needed assets.
Why it matters: This guidance shows the company's view on current challenges. It hints at future results.
Watch forThe company confirms adjusted EPS guidance remains in the range of $10.45 to $11.15.
Also watch forThe company lowers adjusted EPS guidance to below $10.45.
Why it matters: This shows management's view is correct. It shows earnings are stable.
Watch forAdjusted EPS for Q2 2026 meets or exceeds the lower end of the guidance range.
Also watch forAdjusted EPS for Q2 2026 falls below the guidance range of $10.45 to $11.15.
Why it matters: Recovery means better performance in the U.S./CAN segment. This segment has had problems.
Supportive ifThe Argo plant returns to normal by Q3 2026.
Worry ifMore delays in recovery at the Argo facility hurt U.S./CAN results.
Why it matters: These charges will affect the finances. They show the company's change in strategy.
Worry ifThe company reports about $36 million in charges for Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifCharges reported are much lower than $36 million.
Why it matters: These charges relate to the Cabo facility closure. They will impact overall financial health.
Worry ifThe company reports $36 million in impairment charges in Q2 2026 as planned.
Less concerning ifImpairment charges are lower than $36 million or not reported at all.
Why it matters: Closing this facility helps Ingredion run better. It also cuts costs.
Worry ifThe Cabo facility will stop operations as planned by June 30, 2026.
Less concerning ifOperations at the Cabo facility keep going past the planned closure date.
Why it matters: Growth in this segment is key for Ingredion's success. It shows what customers need.
Supportive ifNet sales volume in Texture & Healthful Solutions shows growth of 5% or more year over year.
Worry ifGrowth in this segment falls below 2% year over year.
Why it matters: Better operations at the Argo plant are important for making money in the U.S./CAN.
Supportive ifThe Argo plant is making more money. It shows higher production rates.
Worry ifOngoing problems cause drops in operating income. This is from the U.S./CAN segment.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$87 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $169 loss on $10,000 · 1.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,528 loss on $10,000 · 25.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.