Intel Corporation (INTC)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$95.80+4.51%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · INTC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 26.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 19.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 6.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 71 industry peers
INTC — debt issuance
Dated 2026-08-12
Other Events. On August 10, 2026, Intel Corporation (“Intel” or the “Company”) entered into an underwriting agreement (the “Underwriting Agreement”) with J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC, Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC and Citigroup Global Markets Inc., as the representatives of the underwriters (the “Underwriters”), pursuant to which the Company agreed to issue and sell 210,526,315 shares of common stock, $0.001 par value (“Common Stock”), at a price of $95.00 per share (such of…
Why it matters: Managing costs well is important for Intel's financial health.
Worry ifIntel plans operating expenses of $17 billion for 2025 and $16 billion for 2026.
Less concerning ifIf operating costs are much higher than expected, it shows bad cost control.
Why it matters: Recent departures can affect how the company runs. Stability is important for growth.
Worry ifNo new executives left the company by Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifAnother big executive will leave by Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Better factory output helps meet demand. This keeps revenue steady.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue is over $14 billion. This shows strong factory output.
Worry ifQ2 revenue is under $13 billion. This points to ongoing supply issues.
Why it matters: Factory output is critical for meeting demand. Shortfalls could impact revenue.
Supportive ifFactory output increases by at least 20% by Q3 2026.
Worry ifFactory output does not improve or declines by Q3 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$317 on $10,000 · ±3.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $636 loss on $10,000 · 6.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,190 loss on $10,000 · 41.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Partnerships can enhance Intel's position in the AI market and drive new revenue streams.
Supportive ifA new partnership for AI inference workloads will be announced by Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo new partnerships have been announced. This shows a pause in the AI strategy.
Why it matters: Keeping costs under $16 billion shows good cost control. It also shows discipline.
Supportive ifOperating expenses are below $16 billion for 2026. This shows good cost control.
Worry ifOperating expenses are over $17 billion. This shows poor cost management.
Why it matters: A successful launch would boost Intel's notebook market position. It would also confirm its product plans.
Supportive ifPanther Lake launches successfully by year-end. This would attract market interest.
Worry ifPanther Lake launch is delayed or fails to meet performance expectations.
Why it matters: This would confirm Intel's successful pivot to AI and its importance in driving future growth.
Supportive ifAI-driven businesses make up over 65% of total revenue. This shows strong market position.
Worry ifAI-driven businesses fall below 55% of total revenue. This suggests problems in this area.
Why it matters: New agreements would show strong demand for Intel's products. They would support its strategy in AI and data centers.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of new long-term agreements with major clients like Google or NVIDIA.
Worry ifNo new agreements are announced. This may show weakness in customer demand.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth shows that people want Intel's products, especially in AI.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year, indicating strong demand.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth is below 5% year over year, suggesting weakening demand.
Why it matters: A successful launch would help Intel in the notebook market and support growth.
Supportive ifPanther Lake launches on time by the end of 2026. This shows good planning.
Worry ifPanther Lake launch is delayed past year-end. This shows there are execution problems.
Why it matters: Better yields show Intel can increase production and meet demand.
Supportive ifIntel 18A yields are better than expected. This shows good production ramp.
Worry ifIntel 18A yields are below expectations. This suggests there are production problems.
Why it matters: Strong growth in AI revenue would validate Intel's strategy to focus on AI and CPUs.
Supportive ifAI-driven revenue growth exceeds 50% year over year in Q3.
Worry ifAI-driven revenue growth is below 30% year over year in Q3.