Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-07-31 · fmp
Intuit (INTU)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$354.84-0.50%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
26.28 → 25.97 EPS · FY ending Jul 31, 2028 · 19 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 19 to 19; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for INTU yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
5 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Accelerate AI-driven innovation | A supporting condition in Intuit's published investment case. The stated target is Sustain AI innovation acceleration. | Intact | AI innovation efforts stall or fail to deliver meaningful product improvements | Qualitative: 3 positive AI events (Oct 27, Oct 15, Sep 13) vs 1 negative (Sep 19) Intuit launched new AI tools and acquired Sequence, signaling continued AI-driven product innovation and strategic scaling. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-07-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 19, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-oriented software business with a multi-year thesis tied to expanding its Big Bets and customer base. The thesis is intact, recent performance is strong, and the company-quality measure improved, though management consistency and overall risk remain concerns.
The evidence describes INTU as cheap versus peers, while the priced-in tag is justified and fragility is low. The expectations gap is slightly negative, suggesting expectations are close to what the evidence supports rather than leaving a wide margin for disappointment.
In fiscal 2026, revenue grew 14% to $21.4 billion, and Big Bets grew 34% to 30% of revenue. Management delivered on its priorities for growth and repurchases, and an August earnings beat supports the recent operating picture. Near-term miss risk is rated quiet, but peers have missed recently and the company has a deep miss in its history.
Over the next year, the thesis depends on continued Big Bets growth and on management maintaining credibility after raising guidance. A later guidance cut would be a meaningful setback. Fed rate cuts or steadier results from major technology peers could support the sector backdrop, while ongoing sector pressure could remain a headwind.
For the 1-3 year view, INTU combines strong recent execution with a valuation described as cheap versus peers, but the high risk rating and management volatility keep the thesis conditional. Its durability hinges on continued growth and reliable guidance. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Share repurchases of at least $1.6B in Q2 2026 |
| A supporting condition in Intuit's published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.6 billion. |
| Intact |
| Repurchases fall significantly below $1.6 billion in Q2 2026 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
EPS near $0.76 next quarter | Profit margins remain strong with EPS guidance at $0.76 next quarter. | Intact | EPS falls below $0.73 next quarter | Diluted EPS: $1.34 per share FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.73 per share. Same fiscal period as the stored target. Sep 9, 20261.34 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Simplify organizational structure with workforce reduction | A supporting condition in Intuit's published investment case. The stated target is Complete planned simplification and cost savings. | Improving | Cost savings and simplification plans fail or lead to operational disruption | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Full-year revenue at or above $21.34B in FY26 | A primary condition in Intuit's published investment case. The stated target is >= $21.34 billion. | Under Pressure | Revenue falls below $21.34 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $4.354B FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= $21.34 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 9, 20264,354,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$30.86 → $25.97 · observed estimates
$26.35B → $25.50B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | $30.86 | $26,352,037,215 | 13 / 23 |
| 2026-08-02 | $30.86 | $26,352,037,215 | 13 / 23 |
| 2026-08-03 | $30.86 | $26,352,037,215 | 13 / 23 |
| 2026-08-04 | $30.86 | $26,352,037,215 | 13 / 23 |
| 2026-08-05 | $30.86 | $26,352,037,215 | 13 / 23 |
| 2026-08-06 | $30.86 | $26,352,037,215 | 13 / 23 |
| 2026-08-07 | $30.86 | $26,352,037,215 | 13 / 23 |
| 2026-08-08 | $30.86 | $26,352,037,215 | 13 / 23 |
| 2026-08-09 | $30.86 | $26,352,037,215 | 13 / 23 |
| 2026-08-10 | $30.86 | $26,352,037,215 | 13 / 23 |
| 2026-08-12 | $30.86 | $26,352,037,215 | 13 / 23 |
| 2026-08-13 | $30.86 | $26,352,037,215 | 13 / 23 |
| 2026-08-14 | $30.86 | $26,352,037,215 | 13 / 23 |
| 2026-08-15 | $30.86 | $26,352,037,215 | 13 / 23 |
| 2026-08-16 | $30.86 | $26,352,037,215 | 13 / 23 |
| 2026-08-17 | $30.86 | $26,352,037,215 | 13 / 23 |
| 2026-08-18 | $30.86 | $26,352,037,215 | 13 / 23 |
| 2026-08-19 | $30.86 | $26,352,037,215 | 13 / 23 |
| 2026-08-20 | $30.79 | $26,265,525,123 | 13 / 25 |
| 2026-08-21 | $30.79 | $26,231,672,742 | 13 / 25 |
| 2026-08-22 | $30.79 | $26,231,672,742 | 13 / 25 |
| 2026-08-23 | $30.81 | $26,212,387,028 | 13 / 25 |
| 2026-08-24 | $30.81 | $26,212,387,028 | 13 / 25 |
| 2026-08-25 | $30.80 | $26,206,687,618 | 13 / 26 |
| 2026-08-26 | $30.31 | $26,157,133,072 | 13 / 26 |
| 2026-08-27 | $30.31 | $26,157,133,072 | 13 / 26 |
| 2026-08-28 | $30.31 | $26,157,133,072 | 13 / 26 |
| 2026-08-29 | $27.44 | $25,650,411,574 | 18 / 22 |
| 2026-08-30 | $27.31 | $25,578,308,037 | 18 / 23 |
| 2026-08-31 | $27.38 | $25,568,630,425 | 18 / 23 |
| 2026-09-01 | $27.38 | $25,538,644,639 | 18 / 23 |
| 2026-09-02 | $27.38 | $25,538,642,343 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-09-03 | $27.26 | $25,538,642,343 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-09-04 | $27.26 | $25,538,642,343 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-09-05 | $27.38 | $25,533,877,812 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-09-06 | $27.38 | $25,533,877,812 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-09-07 | $27.38 | $25,533,877,812 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-09-08 | $27.38 | $25,533,877,812 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-09-09 | $27.38 | $25,533,877,812 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-09-10 | $27.38 | $25,533,877,812 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-09-11 | $27.38 | $25,533,877,812 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-09-12 | $27.23 | $25,533,874,108 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-09-13 | $27.23 | $25,533,874,108 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-09-14 | $27.23 | $25,533,874,108 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-09-15 | $27.42 | $25,536,122,729 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-09-16 | $27.27 | $25,536,122,729 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-09-17 | $26.45 | $25,536,122,729 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-09-18 | $26.45 | $25,536,122,729 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-09-19 | $26.45 | $25,536,122,729 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-09-20 | $26.77 | $25,535,844,951 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-09-21 | $26.77 | $25,535,844,951 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-09-22 | $26.77 | $25,535,844,951 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-09-23 | $26.77 | $25,535,844,951 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-09-24 | $26.77 | $25,535,844,951 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-09-25 | $26.28 | $25,533,997,692 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-09-26 | $26.28 | $25,533,997,692 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-09-27 | $26.28 | $25,533,997,692 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-09-28 | $26.28 | $25,533,997,692 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-09-29 | $26.28 | $25,533,997,692 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-09-30 | $26.28 | $25,533,997,692 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-10-01 | $26.28 | $25,533,997,692 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-10-02 | $26.28 | $25,533,997,692 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-10-03 | $26.28 | $25,534,001,396 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-10-04 | $26.28 | $25,534,001,396 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-10-05 | $26.28 | $25,534,001,396 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-10-06 | $26.28 | $25,534,001,396 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-10-07 | $26.28 | $25,534,001,396 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-10-08 | $26.28 | $25,534,001,396 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-10-09 | $26.28 | $25,534,001,396 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-10-10 | $26.28 | $25,534,001,396 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-10-11 | $26.28 | $25,534,004,666 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-10-12 | $26.28 | $25,534,004,666 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-10-13 | $26.28 | $25,535,077,319 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-10-14 | $26.28 | $25,535,077,319 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-10-15 | $26.28 | $25,535,077,319 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-10-16 | $25.97 | $25,535,077,319 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-10-17 | $25.97 | $25,535,077,319 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-10-18 | $25.97 | $25,500,105,849 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-10-19 | $25.97 | $25,500,105,849 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-10-20 | $25.97 | $25,500,105,849 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-10-21 | $25.97 | $25,500,105,849 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-10-22 | $25.97 | $25,500,105,849 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-10-23 | $25.97 | $25,500,105,849 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-10-24 | $25.97 | $25,500,105,849 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-10-25 | $25.97 | $25,500,105,849 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-10-26 | $25.97 | $25,500,105,849 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-10-27 | $25.97 | $25,500,105,849 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-10-28 | $25.97 | $25,500,105,849 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-10-29 | $25.97 | $25,500,105,849 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-10-30 | $25.97 | $25,500,105,849 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-10-31 | $25.97 | $25,500,105,849 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-11-01 | $25.97 | $25,500,105,849 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-11-02 | $25.97 | $25,500,105,849 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-11-03 | $25.97 | $25,500,105,849 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-11-04 | $25.97 | $25,500,105,849 | 19 / 22 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 20 Buy / Strong Buy · 12 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 5 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.