Intuit (INTU)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$332.70-3.37%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · INTU
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -1.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 12.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 119 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
INTU — dividend update
Dated 2026-08-25
OTHER EVENTS. On August 25, 2026, Intuit also announced that its Board of Directors approved a cash dividend of $1.38 per share. The cash dividend will be paid on October 16, 2026 to shareholders of record as of the close of business on October 8, 2026. Future declarations of dividends and the establishment of future record dates and payment dates are subject to the final determination of the Intuit Board of Directors. A copy of the press release announcing the cash dividend is furnished as E…
Why it matters: Strong growth in TurboTax Live indicates success in the assisted tax segment.
Supportive ifTurboTax Live revenue grows by 36% to $2.8 billion.
Worry ifTurboTax Live revenue growth is below 30%.
Why it matters: Higher costs mean problems with restructuring. This could hurt profit margins.
Worry ifRestructuring costs are over $340 million.
Less concerning ifRestructuring costs are $340 million or less.
Why it matters: A slowdown may show that management lacks confidence in cash flow or spending plans.
Worry ifShare buybacks are much lower than $5.5 billion in FY26.
Less concerning ifShare repurchases reported at or above $5.5 billion in FY26.
Why it matters: TurboTax is a key product. Slower growth could signal challenges in the tax segment.
Worry ifTurboTax revenue growth below 2% for FY27.
Less concerning ifTurboTax revenue growth at or above 2% for FY27.
Why it matters: More buybacks show strong commitment to returning money. It also shows confidence in cash flow.
Supportive ifShare repurchases exceed $2 billion in FY27.
Worry ifShare repurchases below $2 billion in FY27.
Why it matters: Updates on AI products show how well Intuit is competing in the tech space. Success here can boost growth.
Supportive ifNew AI features or products will make the customer experience better.
Worry ifNo significant updates on AI products or features in the next quarter.
Why it matters: This will show if Intuit can maintain its growth momentum. A drop would raise concerns.
Worry ifQ1 FY27 total revenue growth below 11%.
Less concerning ifQ1 FY27 total revenue growth at or above 11%.
Why it matters: The workforce cut aims to simplify operations. Its success will affect cost structure and efficiency.
Watch forCost savings from the workforce reduction exceed $300 million.
Also watch forCost savings from the workforce reduction fall short of $200 million.
Why it matters: More share buybacks show that management believes in the company's value and future.
Supportive ifLook for news on a faster share buyback plan beyond the $3.5 billion limit.
Worry ifNo news on more share buybacks or a cut in the current plan.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$253 on $10,000 · ±2.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $515 loss on $10,000 · 5.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,341 loss on $10,000 · 63.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.