Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Invitation Homes (INVH)
NYSEReal EstateReit - ResidentialSnapshot 2026-11-05
$27.56-0.04%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - ResidentialSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.74 → 0.73 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for INVH yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Complete $500 million share repurchase program and start new one | They repurchased $500 million in shares and started a new program. | Intact | No new share repurchase program authorized or completed in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a residential real estate business with a multi-year thesis tied to steady rental operations, not a rapid-growth story. The thesis is intact: recent financial performance is strong relative to its industry, though company momentum weakened after the latest results.
The evidence describes INVH as cheap versus peers, with expectations below the model’s estimate and low fragility in what is priced in. That suggests the market is not assuming flawless execution, though the valuation view has high model confidence and does not remove business risks.
Near term, results show improving but modest same-store performance: NOI growth moved from negative in Q1 to positive in Q2 and Q3, while Q3 rent growth was 3.0%. Management raised its 2026 Core FFO and NOI growth outlook, and home-sale proceeds funded repurchases; the main near-term watch is whether execution continues without a guidance reversal.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on delivering the raised outlook and sustaining positive same-store NOI growth. Fed rate cuts could support rate-sensitive real estate, while weakness among sector peers could remove a helpful backdrop; a guidance cut after the recent increase would also damage management credibility.
For the 1-to-3-year view, INVH’s operating trajectory supports an intact thesis, but growth remains modest and the outlook depends on continued execution and sector conditions. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company keeps its 2026 outlook and buys new homes to grow. |
| Intact |
| New home acquisitions fall below 200 homes per quarter |
Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain revenue growth near 8.8% YoY | A primary condition in Invitation Homes's published investment case. The stated target is >=8% YoY revenue growth. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 3% next year | Revenue growth: 6.26% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=8% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 29, 20266.264768 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.66 → $0.73 · observed estimates
$2.99B → $3.01B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.66 | $2,988,640,170 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.72 | $2,926,063,373 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.66 | $2,988,640,170 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.72 | $2,926,063,373 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.72 | $2,985,779,277 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.66 | $2,988,640,170 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.72 | $2,985,779,277 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.73 | $2,970,676,691 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.73 | $2,970,676,691 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.68 | $2,987,898,830 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.74 | $2,985,377,277 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.68 | $2,987,898,830 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.68 | $2,991,798,830 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.68 | $2,991,798,830 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.74 | $2,985,377,277 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.74 | $2,985,377,277 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.68 | $2,988,798,830 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.74 | $2,985,377,277 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.68 | $2,996,008,670 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.74 | $2,985,377,277 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.74 | $2,985,377,277 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.74 | $2,985,377,277 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.74 | $2,985,377,277 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.74 | $2,985,377,277 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.74 | $2,985,377,277 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.74 | $2,985,377,277 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.75 | $3,016,399,000 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.75 | $3,016,399,000 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.75 | $3,016,399,000 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.75 | $3,016,399,000 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.75 | $3,016,399,000 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.74 | $3,016,399,000 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.74 | $3,016,399,000 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.74 | $3,016,399,000 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.74 | $3,016,399,000 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.75 | $3,016,399,000 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.75 | $3,016,399,000 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.75 | $3,016,399,000 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.75 | $3,016,399,000 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.75 | $3,016,399,000 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.75 | $3,016,399,000 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.75 | $3,016,399,000 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.74 | $3,016,399,000 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.74 | $3,016,399,000 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.74 | $3,016,399,000 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.74 | $3,016,399,000 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.74 | $3,016,399,000 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.74 | $3,016,399,000 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.74 | $3,016,399,000 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.74 | $3,016,399,000 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.74 | $3,016,399,000 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.74 | $3,016,399,000 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.74 | $3,016,399,000 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.74 | $3,016,399,000 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.74 | $3,016,399,000 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.74 | $3,016,399,000 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.74 | $3,016,399,000 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.74 | $3,016,399,000 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.74 | $3,016,399,000 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.74 | $3,016,399,000 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.74 | $3,016,399,000 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.74 | $3,016,399,000 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.74 | $3,016,399,000 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.74 | $3,016,399,000 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.74 | $3,016,399,000 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.74 | $3,016,399,000 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.74 | $3,016,399,000 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.74 | $3,016,399,000 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.74 | $3,016,399,000 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.74 | $3,016,399,000 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.74 | $3,016,399,000 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.74 | $3,016,399,000 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.74 | $3,016,399,000 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.74 | $3,016,399,000 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.74 | $3,016,399,000 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.74 | $3,016,399,000 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.74 | $3,016,399,000 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.74 | $3,016,399,000 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.74 | $3,016,399,000 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.74 | $3,016,399,000 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.74 | $3,016,399,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.74 | $3,017,399,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.74 | $3,017,399,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.74 | $3,017,399,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.74 | $3,017,399,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.74 | $3,017,399,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.74 | $3,017,399,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.74 | $3,017,645,571 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.74 | $3,014,276,571 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.74 | $3,027,839,333 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.74 | $3,027,839,333 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.74 | $3,027,839,333 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.74 | $3,027,839,333 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.74 | $3,027,839,333 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.74 | $3,027,839,333 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.74 | $3,027,839,333 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.74 | $3,027,839,333 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.74 | $3,023,839,333 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.74 | $3,023,839,333 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.74 | $3,023,839,333 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.74 | $3,023,839,333 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.70 | $3,011,558,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.73 | $3,011,558,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-05 | $0.73 | $3,011,558,000 | 6 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 11 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 5 recorded
1 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.