Invitation Homes (INVH)
NYSEReal EstateReit - ResidentialSnapshot 2026-09-04
$28.39-0.21%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - ResidentialSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · INVH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -2.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 6.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 16 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
INVH — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-07-08
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. On July 8, 2026, Invitation Homes Operating Partnership LP (the “Issuer”), a Delaware limited partnership and the principal operating subsidiary of Invitation Homes Inc., a Maryland corporation (the “Company”), closed an underwritten public offering of $500 million aggregate principal amount of its 4.950% Senior Notes due 2032 (the “Notes”). The Notes are fully and unconditionall…
Why it matters: Higher occupancy rates can bring in more money and better NOI.
Supportive ifOccupancy rates are over 96% in Q2 2026.
Worry ifOccupancy rates are below 96% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Negative Same Store NOI growth may show a drop in efficiency and profit.
Worry ifSame Store NOI growth drops below 0% year over year.
Less concerning ifSame Store NOI growth remains positive year over year.
Why it matters: Higher rent growth shows better pricing power and demand in the rental market.
Supportive ifApril Same Store blended rent growth exceeds 2.3%.
Worry ifApril Same Store blended rent growth falls below 2.3%.
Why it matters: Share repurchases can show that management believes in the company's value and helps stock price.
Supportive ifThey will announce share repurchases under the new $500 million program.
Worry ifNo share repurchase news or actions happen under the new program.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$79 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $198 loss on $10,000 · 2.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,865 loss on $10,000 · 18.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: More new leases mean rental demand is recovering.
Supportive ifApril 2026 new lease rent growth is above 0%.
Worry ifApril 2026 new lease rent growth is below 0%.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how revenue is growing and how well operations are.
Watch forQ2 earnings show revenue growth exceeding 8.8% year over year.
Also watch forQ2 earnings show revenue growth below 8.8% year over year.
Why it matters: If the integration works well, it could help growth. This means more homes and improved operations.
Supportive ifResiBuilt Homes adds $0.02 to AFFO per share.
Worry ifResiBuilt Homes does not add to AFFO per share.
Why it matters: Core FFO per share is a key measure of financial health. Meeting or exceeding guidance shows strong earnings performance.
Supportive ifCore FFO per share for Q3 meets or exceeds $1.95.
Worry ifCore FFO per share for Q3 falls below $1.95.
Why it matters: Higher occupancy rates can show more demand for rental homes and boost revenue.
Supportive ifSame Store Average Occupancy rises above 97.1% in Q3.
Worry ifSame Store Average Occupancy falls below 97.1% in Q3.
Why it matters: More share buybacks can show management's confidence in the company's value and help stock prices.
Supportive ifShare repurchases exceed $100 million in Q3.
Worry ifShare repurchases fall below $100 million in Q3.
Why it matters: If it drops below this level, it shows weak performance. This could hurt investor trust.
Worry ifQ3 Same Store NOI growth prints below 1.5% year over year.
Less concerning ifSame Store NOI growth exceeds 1.5% year over year.
Why it matters: If guidance goes up, it shows strong performance. It also shows management's confidence.
Supportive ifManagement raises Core FFO per share guidance above $1.95.
Worry ifCore FFO per share guidance remains at or below $1.95.
Why it matters: Going over this amount shows good capital use. It shows confidence in the company's value.
Supportive ifTotal share repurchases exceed $1 billion by the end of 2026.
Worry ifTotal share buybacks stay under $1 billion by the end of the year.