Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Iridium Communications (IRDM)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesTelecommunications ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$42.02-4.09%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesTelecommunications ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.38 → 1.01 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for IRDM yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Aireon acquisition adds at least $100 million service revenue annually | The Aireon deal adds $100 million revenue yearly. | Intact | Aireon revenue contribution falls below $100 million annually | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
IRDM is a communications-services growth and acquisition story, with the thesis tied to expanding service offerings and aviation safety services. Its current long-term thesis is intact, and recent signals have improved from mixed to mildly favorable, but confidence in the evidence is medium and risk remains elevated.
IRDM is valued at a premium to peers, while the model’s expectations gap points to a meaningful gap between current expectations and its assessment. Valuation is the main source of fragility, but the evidence does not show a broader combination of expensive valuation, weak fundamentals, and turbulent conditions.
Near-term, recent momentum has improved and the October 20 earnings event was positive, while the thesis assessment says performance remains in the top half of the industry. Service revenue has grown, with much of the latest increase tied to Aireon; the Rocket Lab acquisition still awaits regulatory approvals and closing conditions. Recent earnings have been erratic, so a guidance cut would be a meaningful setback.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on completing the pending Rocket Lab acquisition and turning expanded service offerings into sustained results. Aireon has added revenue, but the evidence does not establish delivery of planned new aviation products. Fed rate cuts and continued strong results from sector peers are possible tailwinds, while weaker guidance is a key downside scenario.
For the next 1 to 3 years, IRDM’s long-term thesis is intact but execution-sensitive: service growth and improved momentum support it, while expensive peer valuation, elevated risk, and uncertain delivery keep the evidence mixed. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Dividends stay steady at $0.15 per share. |
| Intact |
| Dividend per share falls below $0.15 in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Reduce net leverage to 3.0x or below by end of 2026 | A supporting condition in Iridium Communications's published investment case. The stated target is <= 3.0x net leverage by end 2026. | Under Pressure | Net leverage remains above 3.4x at end 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Total service revenue growth flat to 2% in 2026 | A primary condition in Iridium Communications's published investment case. The stated target is flat to 2% growth in 2026. | Improving | YoY service revenue growth falls below 0% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 8.28% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: flat to 2% growth in 2026. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 20, 20268.283429 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.36 → $1.01 · observed estimates
$0.95B → $0.97B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.36 | $950,356,675 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.57 | $994,471,500 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.57 | $994,471,500 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.36 | $950,356,675 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.97 | $1,021,195,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.97 | $1,021,195,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.97 | $1,021,195,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.97 | $1,015,528,070 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.36 | $950,356,675 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.97 | $1,015,528,070 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.97 | $1,015,528,070 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.97 | $1,015,528,070 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.37 | $960,918,911 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.97 | $1,015,528,070 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.37 | $960,918,911 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.97 | $1,015,528,070 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.97 | $1,015,528,070 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.37 | $960,918,911 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.37 | $960,918,911 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.37 | $960,918,911 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.37 | $960,918,911 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.37 | $960,918,911 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.37 | $960,918,911 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.37 | $960,918,911 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.37 | $960,918,911 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.37 | $960,918,911 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.35 | $978,068,548 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.35 | $978,068,548 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.35 | $978,068,548 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.35 | $978,068,548 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.35 | $978,068,548 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.35 | $968,882,258 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.35 | $968,882,258 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.35 | $968,882,258 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.35 | $968,882,258 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.35 | $968,882,258 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.35 | $968,882,258 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.35 | $968,882,258 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.35 | $968,882,258 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.35 | $968,882,258 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.35 | $968,882,258 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.35 | $968,882,258 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.35 | $968,882,258 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.35 | $968,882,258 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.35 | $968,882,258 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.35 | $968,882,258 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.35 | $968,882,258 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.35 | $968,882,258 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.35 | $968,882,258 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.35 | $968,882,258 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.35 | $968,882,258 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.35 | $968,882,258 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.35 | $968,882,258 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.35 | $968,882,258 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.35 | $968,882,258 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.35 | $968,882,258 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.35 | $968,882,258 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.35 | $968,882,258 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.35 | $968,882,258 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.35 | $968,882,258 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.35 | $968,882,258 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.35 | $968,882,258 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.35 | $968,882,258 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.35 | $968,882,258 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.35 | $968,882,258 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.35 | $968,882,258 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.35 | $968,882,258 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.35 | $968,882,258 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.38 | $960,735,215 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.38 | $960,735,215 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.38 | $960,735,215 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.38 | $960,735,215 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.38 | $960,735,215 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.38 | $960,735,215 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.38 | $960,735,215 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.38 | $960,735,215 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.38 | $960,735,215 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.38 | $960,735,215 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.38 | $960,735,215 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.38 | $960,735,215 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.38 | $960,735,215 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.38 | $960,735,215 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.38 | $960,735,215 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.38 | $960,735,215 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.38 | $960,735,215 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.38 | $960,735,215 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.38 | $960,735,215 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.38 | $960,735,215 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.26 | $973,480,048 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.26 | $973,480,048 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.22 | $981,280,881 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.22 | $981,280,881 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.22 | $981,280,881 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.22 | $981,280,881 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.22 | $981,280,881 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.22 | $981,280,881 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.22 | $981,280,881 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.17 | $981,280,881 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.17 | $981,280,881 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.01 | $968,477,058 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.01 | $968,477,058 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.01 | $968,477,058 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.01 | $968,477,058 | 3 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.