Iridium Communications (IRDM)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesTelecommunications ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$42.02-4.09%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesTelecommunications ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · IRDM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 209.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 204.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 10 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
IRDM — credit agreement
Dated 2026-09-15
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Amendment No. 4 to Amended and Restated Credit Agreement As previously disclosed in its Current Report on Form 8-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on June 29, 2026, Iridium Communications Inc. (the “Company) entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “Merger Agreement”), dated as of June 28, 2026, with Rocket Lab Corporation (“Rocket Lab”), Ion Merger Sub I, Inc., a Delaware corporation and an indirect wholly owned subsidiar…
Why it matters: Aireon added service revenue, but the deal also raised debt. Results can show whether its sales match the stated plan.
Supportive ifWatch for company results showing Aireon adds at least $100 million in annual service revenue.
Worry ifWatch for reported Aireon service revenue below a $100 million annual run rate after four full quarters.
Why it matters: Net leverage was 4.2 times in Q3, above the stated year-end limit of 3.0 times. Aireon added debt.
Worry ifWatch for year-end 2026 net debt above 3.0 times OEBITDA for the past twelve months.
Less concerning ifWatch for year-end 2026 net debt at or below 3.0 times OEBITDA for the past twelve months.
Why it matters: Stockholders approved the deal, but regulators and other closing steps remain. Closing is planned for mid-2027.
Watch forWatch for a company filing that confirms all needed approvals and completion by mid-2027.
Also watch forWatch for a failed approval, a missed closing condition, or a delay beyond mid-2027.
Why it matters: The U.S. government is Iridium's largest single customer. A renewal would keep the current service contract in place.
Supportive ifWatch for a signed EMSS renewal with the U.S. Space Force by March 2027.
Worry ifWatch for no renewal by March 2027, or for a notice that the contract will end.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$93 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $455 loss on $10,000 · 4.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,459 loss on $10,000 · 24.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The service could extend satellite links to more devices. Live tests are underway, but a launch is not yet confirmed.
Supportive ifWatch for a public launch of Iridium NTN Direct in 2026, with live service or customer use.
Worry ifWatch for the 2026 launch to slip, or for the company to report that live tests have stopped.