Iridium Communications (IRDM)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesTelecommunications ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$47.21+0.55%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesTelecommunications ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · IRDM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 65.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 59.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 23 industry peers
IRDM — dividend update
Dated 2026-08-10
Regulation FD Disclosure. On August 10, 2026, the Board declared a cash dividend on its common stock of $0.15 per share. The dividend is payable on September 30, 2026, to stockholders of record as of September 15, 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in net income shows less profit and could cause worries.
Worry ifQ2 net income reported below $20 million.
Less concerning ifQ2 net income reported above $20 million.
Why it matters: Aireon's revenue growth will show how well its services fit with Iridium's.
Supportive ifAireon will bring in at least $100 million in service revenue in the first year.
Worry ifAireon fails to meet revenue expectations or shows declining growth.
Why it matters: Increasing dividends would show strong cash flow. It shows a commitment to returning value to shareholders.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a dividend increase above $0.15 per share.
Worry ifDividend remains unchanged or is cut below $0.15 per share.
Why it matters: Lowering net debt is key for financial health. It builds trust with investors.
Supportive ifNet leverage decreases to 3.0 times OEBITDA by the end of 2026.
Worry ifNet leverage stays above 3.4 times OEBITDA. There is no clear plan to reduce it.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$165 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $516 loss on $10,000 · 5.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,642 loss on $10,000 · 36.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The Aireon deal could improve Iridium's services. This may help increase revenue. Investors want updates on how the integration is going and any benefits.
Supportive ifLook for news about successful steps or early money from Aireon.
Worry ifNo news or delays in the purchase may mean there are problems with integration.
Why it matters: Management aims for service revenue growth of flat to 2%. This shows business health.
Supportive ifTotal service revenue for Q3 2026 shows growth over 2% from last year.
Worry ifTotal service revenue for Q3 2026 shows a decline or growth below 0% from last year.
Why it matters: The acquisition is key for Iridium's growth and integration into a larger space company. It could reshape their market position.
Supportive ifThe acquisition will close as planned in mid-2027. All regulatory approvals are secured.
Worry ifThe acquisition may face delays. It might not get stockholder approval.
Why it matters: Higher operating income shows better cost control and growth. It shows the company is efficient.
Supportive ifQ2 operating income is more than $50.7 million.
Worry ifQ2 operating income is less than $50.7 million.
Why it matters: The Aireon acquisition aims to increase Iridium's aviation safety services. This could bring in more money.
Supportive ifA big increase in aviation safety service revenue was reported in Q3 2026.
Worry ifAviation safety service revenue stays flat or drops in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Service revenue growth is key for financial health. It shows demand for Iridium's services.
Supportive ifQ3 service revenue growth is at or above 2% compared to last year.
Worry ifQ3 service revenue growth is below 0% compared to last year.