Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Investar Holding Corp. (ISTR)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$27.80-2.42%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.30 → 3.21 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ISTR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
successful integration of Wichita Falls Bancshares | The company completed its Wichita Falls Bancshares acquisition. | Intact | integration progress score falls below 66% by 2026-Q2 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
ISTR is a regional bank with a moderately risky, execution-led thesis rather than a clear turnaround. The long-term thesis is intact: recent financial performance remains in the top half of its industry, and management is making progress on its stated priorities.
Valuation is characterized as cheap versus peers, with only a small expectations gap and low fragility in what is priced in. The valuation measure rose recently, while the overall signal shifted from mixed to mildly favorable; the evidence does not point to unusually high expectations.
Near-term results have mixed evidence: ISTR missed its most recent quarter after an earlier beat, and the estimated miss risk is low but worth watching given its smaller size. Across the first two supplied quarters, net interest margin improved as funding costs fell, business lending grew, and management continued dividends and share repurchases.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on whether management maintains guidance and continues delivering on funding costs and commercial lending. A guidance cut or rate cuts from the current level would be unfavorable, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers could support sector momentum.
For the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis remains intact but depends on continued execution after the recent earnings miss and on a rate backdrop that does not weaken the sector setup. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| It keeps dividends steady at $0.11 per share. |
| Intact |
| dividend per share falls below $0.11 in 2026-Q2 |
Dividend per share: $0.12 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=0.11 USD per share. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Aug 6, 20260.12 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
net income at or above $12 million next quarter | Investar grew net income to $12 million in 2026-Q1. | Intact | net income falls below $12 million in 2026-Q2 | Net income: $9.472M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=12.0 million USD. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Aug 6, 20269,472,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.30 → $3.21 · observed estimates
$0.15B → $0.15B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.30 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.26 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.26 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.26 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.26 | $154,750,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.24 | $154,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.21 | $153,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.21 | $153,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.21 | $153,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.21 | $153,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.21 | $153,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.21 | $153,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.21 | $153,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.