Investar Holding Corp. (ISTR)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$31.10+1.27%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ISTR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -6.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -11.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 4.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
ISTR — officer change
Dated 2026-07-20
The company entered into new employment and salary continuation agreements with existing executives.
Why it matters: Steady growth in net income shows better profits and financial health.
Supportive ifNet income increases again in the next quarterly report.
Worry ifNet income goes down or stays the same compared to last quarter.
Why it matters: A bigger dividend increase shows good use of money and care for shareholders.
Supportive ifDividends went up more than 9% in Q3.
Worry ifQuarterly dividend increases are less than or equal to 9% in Q3.
Why it matters: Changing the accounting firm may change financial reports. It could affect investor trust.
Worry ifNo legal issues arise from the change in accounting firms.
Less concerning ifLegal or regulatory issues surface due to the change in accounting firms.
Why it matters: A decline may show issues with loan demand. It could also mean problems with credit quality after the acquisition.
Worry ifTotal loans decrease more than 1% from Q2 to Q3.
Less concerning ifTotal loans increase or remain stable.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$90 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $202 loss on $10,000 · 2.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,192 loss on $10,000 · 11.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A drop below 3.60% would signal challenges in managing funding costs and loan yields.
Worry ifQ3 net interest margin is below 3.60%.
Less concerning ifNet interest margin remains at or above 3.60%.
Why it matters: Changing the accounting firm might change financial reports. It could affect investor trust.
Worry ifNo big problems or delays were found in the reports after the change.
Less concerning ifProblems in financial reporting are found with the new accounting firm.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could mean bigger problems for Investar.
Worry ifSector revenue growth drops below its median level.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median level.
Why it matters: Growing net income shows strong financial health and good management.
Supportive ifIn Q2 2026, net income was over $12 million, showing good progress.
Worry ifIf net income drops below $10 million, it may show profit problems.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows steady returns for shareholders and trust in cash flow.
Supportive ifDividend per share remains at $0.11 for the next quarter.
Worry ifDividend per share is cut below $0.11.
Why it matters: Finishing this deal could help Investar grow. It can reach more customers.
Supportive ifAn official announcement will confirm the deal is done. All approvals are in place.
Worry ifThere are news of more delays or problems with the acquisition process.
Why it matters: An increase in net interest margin would show better earnings from loans and deposits. This is key for growth.
Supportive ifNet interest margin improves to above 3.67% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNet interest margin declines or stays below 3.67% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Growth in the business lending portfolio shows success in attracting higher yielding loans. This is crucial for future earnings.
Supportive ifBusiness lending portfolio grows more than 3.8% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifBusiness lending portfolio growth is less than 3.8% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in earnings per share would indicate weakening profitability. This could concern investors about future growth.
Worry ifDiluted earnings per share falls below $0.61 in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifDiluted earnings per share stays at or above $0.61 in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: An increase in dividends shows strong cash flow and commitment to shareholders. This can boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifQuarterly dividend per share rises above $0.12 in Q3 2026.
Worry ifDividend per share remains at $0.12 or decreases in Q3 2026.