Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-28 · fmp
Jack in the Box, Inc. (JACK)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$14.33-0.28%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.40 → 3.34 EPS · FY ending Sep 28, 2028 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for JACK yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain Adjusted EBITDA of $225-$235 million in FY26 | Jack in the Box aims for $225-$235 million EBITDA in 2026. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $225 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-28 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk restaurant turnaround and execution story, not a steady compounder. The multi-year view remains intact, though the signal has shifted from mildly favorable to mixed.
JACK is described as cheap versus peers, while the priced-in signal is tagged as justified and fragility is low. Model confidence is low, so the evidence does not establish precisely what expectations the market has already built in.
Recent financial performance is strong and earnings quality is robust, while adjusted EBITDA improved from the second to the third quarter and management maintained fiscal 2026 guidance. The restaurant-closure plan has mixed results so far: restaurant count and systemwide sales declined in the third quarter, while capital spending remains within the stated annual guidance. Near-term risk is high, with a watch note about recent misses and possible guidance cuts, despite a quiet risk tier.
The multi-year thesis hinges on execution of the JACK on Track plan, including closures and real estate sales, and on maintaining adjusted EBITDA guidance. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance from those companies could weaken it.
For the next 1 to 3 years, the business setup combines strong recent results and a peer discount with volatile management execution and elevated risk. The thesis remains intact, but its strength depends on consistent delivery and the next guidance update. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company plans $45-$55 million in capital spending. |
| Intact |
| Capex exceeds $55 million or falls far below $45 million in FY26 |
Capital expenditures: $9.571M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: <=55 million USD. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 12, 20269,571,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Low Single Digit Same-Store Sales Decline vs. Fiscal Year 2025 • Depreciation and Amortization of $45 to $50 million • Capital Expenditures of $45 to $55 million, prioritizing sales-driving investments in technology • As previously mentioned, the Company has discontinued its dividend and share repurchase program.” “The Company undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as the result of new information or otherwise.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Maintain company-owned restaurant margin of 17-18% | A primary condition in Jack in the Box, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=17% margin. | Improving | Restaurant margin falls below 17% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Company-Owned Restaurant Level Margin of approximately 16.5% ◦ This includes mid-single-digit commodity inflation and low-single-digit wage inflation.” “Restaurant-Level Margin (1) , a non-GAAP measure, was $17.0 million, or 17.6%, compared to $16.9 million, or 17.9%, a year ago driven primarily by commodity cost inflation and a change in the mix of restaurants, partially offset by increased price.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Sustain revenue near $1.13 billion in FY26 | A primary condition in Jack in the Box, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=1.1 billion USD. | Intact | Revenue falls below $1.1 billion in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.40 → $3.34 · observed estimates
$1.13B → $1.13B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 | $3.40 | $1,128,990,936 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.40 | $1,128,990,936 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.40 | $1,128,990,936 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.40 | $1,128,990,936 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.40 | $1,128,990,936 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.40 | $1,128,990,936 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.40 | $1,128,990,936 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.40 | $1,128,990,936 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.40 | $1,128,990,936 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.40 | $1,128,990,936 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.40 | $1,128,990,936 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.40 | $1,128,990,936 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.40 | $1,128,990,936 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.40 | $1,128,990,936 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.40 | $1,128,990,936 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.40 | $1,128,990,936 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.40 | $1,128,990,936 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.34 | $1,127,595,413 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.34 | $1,127,595,413 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.34 | $1,127,595,413 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.34 | $1,127,595,413 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.34 | $1,127,595,413 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.34 | $1,127,595,413 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.34 | $1,127,595,413 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.34 | $1,127,595,413 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.34 | $1,127,595,413 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.34 | $1,127,595,413 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.34 | $1,127,595,413 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.34 | $1,127,595,413 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.34 | $1,127,595,413 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.34 | $1,127,595,413 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.34 | $1,127,595,413 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.34 | $1,127,595,413 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.34 | $1,127,595,413 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.34 | $1,127,595,413 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.34 | $1,127,595,413 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.34 | $1,127,595,413 | 2 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 12 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Dec 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.