Jack in the Box, Inc. (JACK)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$14.33-0.28%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · JACK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -43.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -6.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 37.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers
JACK — CFO transition
Dated 2026-09-21
Director — Rachel Ruggeri: The filing discloses the appointment of a new independent director and the scheduled retirement of a sitting director at the next annual meeting, which are standard board governance events.
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA rose from $51.3 million in Q2 to $61.2 million in Q3. The full-year result tests the raised profit guide.
Supportive ifThe December 9 earnings report shows FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA of $225 million or more.
Worry ifFY2026 Adjusted EBITDA is less than $225 million.
Why it matters: Closures cut restaurant count and can lower franchise income. The company closed 17 restaurants in Q3.
Worry ifThe FY2026 count shows more than 60 closures, or a restaurant total below 2,100.
Less concerning ifFY2026 closures stay between 50 and 60, and the restaurant count is about 2,100.
Why it matters: Sales fell 1.1% in Q3, mostly from fewer orders. A smaller full-year drop would show sales are improving.
Supportive ifAt the December 9 earnings report, FY2026 same-store sales decline is less than 2%.
Worry ifFY2026 same-store sales decline by 3% or more, worse than the low-single-digit decline guide.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$199 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $783 loss on $10,000 · 7.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,006 loss on $10,000 · 60.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.