Jack in the Box, Inc. (JACK)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$16.14+6.46%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · JACK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -42.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 29 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
JACK — President transition
Dated 2026-07-07
Senior Vice President and Chief Supply Chain Officer — Carl Mount: Mr. Mount is stepping out of his Executive Leadership Team role and transitioning into an advisory role.
Why it matters: More closures might show bigger problems or changes in the business strategy.
Worry ifManagement says there will be more than 50 closures this year.
Less concerning ifManagement says there will be fewer than 50 closures this year.
Why it matters: The number of closures shows how well the company is doing. Fewer closures may mean improvement.
Worry ifLess than 50 restaurants will close in fiscal 2026.
Less concerning ifMore than 100 restaurant closures in fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Improving same-store sales would signal that the 'JACK on Track' plan is working. It would show better customer traffic and franchisee performance.
Supportive ifSame-store sales increase year over year by more than 1% in Q4 2026.
Worry ifSame-store sales decline year over year by more than 1% in Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Keeping the $225-$235M EBITDA guidance shows the company is stable. This is true even with challenges.
Watch forAdjusted EBITDA for Q3 remains within the $225-$235M range.
Also watch forAdjusted EBITDA falls below $225M in Q3.
Why it matters: This margin shows the company controls costs well. It matters for making money.
Supportive ifRestaurant margin at 17% or more for Q3 2026.
Worry ifRestaurant margin below 17% for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Montgomery's leadership could boost sales and help franchisees make more money. His strategies are key.
Supportive ifPositive sales growth was reported in the first quarter after he started.
Worry ifSales decline continues in the first quarter after his appointment.
Why it matters: If same-store sales improve, it would show recovery after a 3.8% drop in Q2.
Supportive ifSame-store sales improve year over year by more than 1% in Q3.
Worry ifSame-store sales decline further year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: Finishing financing successfully would help pay off debt and strengthen the balance sheet.
Supportive ifThe financing is completed and funds are used to repay existing debt.
Worry ifThe financing deal fails to close or is delayed significantly.
Why it matters: Staying within capex guidance shows the company can fund its growth plans. It is crucial for future investments.
Supportive ifCapex reported stays between $45M and $55M for FY 2026.
Worry ifCapex reported falls below $45M for FY 2026.
Why it matters: Stable capital spending shows the company is investing in growth. This helps future sales and efficiency.
Supportive ifQ3 capital spending was between $45 million and $55 million.
Worry ifQ3 capital spending was below $45 million.
Why it matters: This leadership change could drive new strategies and improve performance.
Supportive ifTaylor Montgomery is now CEO and has a clear plan for growth.
Worry ifThere is no clear plan or signs of improvement since Montgomery became CEO.
Why it matters: A larger decline would signal ongoing struggles with customer traffic and sales. This could impact future growth plans.
Worry ifQ3 same-store sales decline worse than -3.8%.
Less concerning ifSame-store sales decline is now better than -3.8%.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well Jack in the Box is managing its losses.
Watch forEarnings report shows a smaller loss than expected.
Also watch forEarnings report shows a larger loss than expected.
Why it matters: This plan is key for helping franchisees make more money and grow in the long run.
Supportive ifManagement reports on the successful closure of at least 50 restaurants as planned by the end of FY 2026.
Worry ifFewer than 50 restaurant closures reported by the end of FY 2026.
Why it matters: Staying within the $225-$230 million range shows the company is managing costs and driving profits. It reflects operational health.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA is between $225 million and $230 million for FY 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA is below $225 million for FY 2026.
Why it matters: Updates on the plan will show how well the company is managing closures and real estate sales. This impacts long-term profitability.
Watch forManagement says the 'JACK on Track' plan is working. There will be fewer than 50 closures by the end of FY 2026.
Also watch forManagement reports more than 60 closures as part of the 'JACK on Track' plan by the end of FY 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$318 on $10,000 · ±3.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $822 loss on $10,000 · 8.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,006 loss on $10,000 · 60.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.