Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Jefferson Capital, Inc. (JCAP)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$20.82+0.87%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.06 → 3.06 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for JCAP yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Annual EPS of $5.64 for 2026 | Management guides EPS of $0.61 for Q2 2026 and $5.64 for full year 2026. | Intact | Annual EPS falls below $5.64 in 2026 | Diluted EPS: $0.67 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=5.64 USD per share. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 13, 20260.67 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 12, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
JCAP is a financial company with an execution-led, income-oriented thesis rather than a clear turnaround story. The 1-to-3-year view remains intact: earnings and portfolio activity are growing, though recent company momentum has weakened.
The valuation evidence labels JCAP cheap, while also showing a durable premium versus peers. The expectations gap is negative, which suggests expectations are not especially demanding; the priced-in signal is justified and fragility is low.
Near term, management has kept 2026 annual EPS guidance steady, and quarterly EPS rose from $0.61 in Q1 to $0.67 in Q2. Collections and deployments also increased year over year, while the quarterly dividend has remained consistent, though its status is rated mixed. The near-term miss risk is quiet, but smaller-cap exposure, a past deep miss, and a recent 12.8-point drop in company momentum are reasons to watch execution.
The multi-year thesis depends on management continuing to deliver against EPS guidance and growing collections and deployments. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, and rate cuts from the current 3.88% could weigh on JCAP and the broader financial sector. Continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers such as V, MA, and AXP would support sector momentum.
For the next 1 to 3 years, JCAP presents an intact but moderate-risk thesis, with growing earnings and portfolio activity set against weaker momentum and sensitivity to rates and guidance. The valuation is labeled cheap, but continued execution is central to the view. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company maintains a stable dividend of $0.24 per share. |
| Intact |
| Dividend per share falls below $0.24 |
Dividend per share: $0.24 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=0.24 USD per share. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 13, 20260.24 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
EPS of $0.61 for Q2 2026 | Management guides EPS of $0.61 for Q2 2026 and $5.64 for full year 2026. | Intact | EPS falls below $0.61 in Q2 2026 | Diluted EPS: $0.67 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=0.61 USD per share. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Aug 13, 20260.67 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.91 → $3.06 · observed estimates
$0.72B → $0.74B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.91 | $718,060,366 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.91 | $718,060,366 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.91 | $718,060,366 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.91 | $718,060,366 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.91 | $718,060,366 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.91 | $718,060,366 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.91 | $712,673,800 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.91 | $712,673,800 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.91 | $718,060,366 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.91 | $712,673,800 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.91 | $712,673,800 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.91 | $712,673,800 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.91 | $712,673,800 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.91 | $718,060,366 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.91 | $718,060,366 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.91 | $718,060,366 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.91 | $712,673,800 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.91 | $718,060,366 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.91 | $718,060,366 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.91 | $712,673,800 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.91 | $718,060,366 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.91 | $718,060,366 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.91 | $718,060,366 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.91 | $718,060,366 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.91 | $718,060,366 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.91 | $718,060,366 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.91 | $718,060,366 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.02 | $744,602,286 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.02 | $744,602,286 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.02 | $744,602,286 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.02 | $744,602,286 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.06 | $739,602,286 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.06 | $739,602,286 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.06 | $739,602,286 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.06 | $739,602,286 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.06 | $739,602,286 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.06 | $739,602,286 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.06 | $739,602,286 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.06 | $739,602,286 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.06 | $739,602,286 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.06 | $739,602,286 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.06 | $739,602,286 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.06 | $739,602,286 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.06 | $739,602,286 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.06 | $739,602,286 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.06 | $739,602,286 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.06 | $739,602,286 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.06 | $739,602,286 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.06 | $739,602,286 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.06 | $739,602,286 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.06 | $739,602,286 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.06 | $739,602,286 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.06 | $739,602,286 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.06 | $739,602,286 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.06 | $739,602,286 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.06 | $739,602,286 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.06 | $739,602,286 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.06 | $739,600,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.06 | $739,600,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.06 | $739,600,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.06 | $739,600,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.06 | $739,600,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.06 | $739,600,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.06 | $739,600,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.06 | $739,600,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.06 | $739,600,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.06 | $739,600,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.06 | $739,600,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.06 | $739,600,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.06 | $739,600,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.06 | $739,600,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.06 | $739,600,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.06 | $739,600,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.06 | $739,600,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.06 | $739,600,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.06 | $739,599,945 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.06 | $739,599,945 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.06 | $739,599,945 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.06 | $739,599,945 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.06 | $739,599,945 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.06 | $739,599,945 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.06 | $739,599,945 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.06 | $739,599,945 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.06 | $739,602,231 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.06 | $739,602,231 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.06 | $739,602,231 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.06 | $739,602,231 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.06 | $739,602,231 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.06 | $739,602,231 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.06 | $739,602,231 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.06 | $739,602,231 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.06 | $739,602,231 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.06 | $739,602,231 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.06 | $739,602,231 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.06 | $739,602,231 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.06 | $739,602,231 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.06 | $739,602,231 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.06 | $739,602,231 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.06 | $739,602,231 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.06 | $739,602,231 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.06 | $739,602,231 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.06 | $739,602,231 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.06 | $739,602,231 | 2 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.