Jefferson Capital, Inc. (JCAP)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$20.82+0.87%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · JCAP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 1.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 10.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 342 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 8.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 22 industry peers
JCAP — debt issuance
Dated 2026-08-18
Other Events. On August 18, 2026, Jefferson Capital, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release regarding the proposed offering by its indirect wholly-owned subsidiary, Jefferson Capital Holdings, LLC (the “Issuer”), of $100 million aggregate principal amount of 8.250% senior notes due 2030 (the “Add-On Notes”). The Add-On Notes are proposed to be issued as additional notes under the Indenture, dated as of May 2, 2025, pursuant to which the Issuer previously issued $500 million in aggregate…
Why it matters: The company issued $100 million of 8.250% notes due 2030. It plans to use some proceeds to repay its revolving credit line.
Watch forA later filing shows leverage at or below 1.71x. It also shows revolving credit borrowings at or below Q2's $226 million.
Also watch forA later filing shows leverage above 1.71x. Or revolving credit borrowings are above $226 million.
Why it matters: The event feed calls the Aug. 21 filing a buyback announcement, but its summary describes added debt. The filing can clarify the cash plan.
Watch forA company filing confirms a share buyback and gives its size, timing, and funding source.
Also watch forThe filing shows no buyback. Or it says the note proceeds only repay revolving credit and fund general corporate needs.
Why it matters: Management said low unemployment supports collections. The Nov. 6 jobs report lands before the next earnings release.
Worry ifThe Nov. 6 Employment Situation report shows rising unemployment from its prior reported level.
Less concerning ifThe Nov. 6 report shows unemployment steady or lower than its prior reported level.
Why it matters: Q2 operating costs rose 45.6%, while revenue grew 16.2%. Higher court costs and servicing costs drove much of the increase.
Worry ifQ3 operating costs grow faster year over year than revenue. Or the cash efficiency ratio falls below Q2's 72.2%.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue grows faster than operating costs and the cash efficiency ratio stays at or above 72.2%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$118 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $314 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,183 loss on $10,000 · 31.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Management lists EPS growth as a priority. Q1 EPS was $0.61 and Q2 was $0.67.
Watch forThe Nov. 12 results show EPS above $0.67 and management keeps the $5.64 full-year 2026 guide.
Also watch forEPS falls below $0.67, or management cuts the $5.64 full-year guide.
Why it matters: More collections can bring in cash, while new purchases add future collections. Bluestem added to recent U.S. collection growth.
Watch forQ3 collections exceed $300.9 million, and deployments exceed $152.2 million. Both are above Q2 2026.
Also watch forQ3 collections fall below $300.9 million or deployments fall below $152.2 million.