Jefferson Capital, Inc. (JCAP)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$21.35-0.14%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · JCAP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 2.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 300 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 6.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 37 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
JCAP — debt issuance
Dated 2026-08-18
Other Events. On August 18, 2026, Jefferson Capital, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release regarding the proposed offering by its indirect wholly-owned subsidiary, Jefferson Capital Holdings, LLC (the “Issuer”), of $100 million aggregate principal amount of 8.250% senior notes due 2030 (the “Add-On Notes”). The Add-On Notes are proposed to be issued as additional notes under the Indenture, dated as of May 2, 2025, pursuant to which the Issuer previously issued $500 million in aggregate…
Why it matters: Revenue growth below 14% may mean less demand or problems. This could affect future earnings.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue growth reported below 14%.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 revenue growth reported at or above 14%.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth signals a weakening trend in the financial sector. It could affect investor confidence.
Worry ifRevenue growth reported below the median for the sector.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above the median for the sector.
Why it matters: Meeting the EPS guidance shows Jefferson Capital can earn well. It shows management trusts their plan.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 EPS reported at or above $0.61.
Worry ifQ2 2026 EPS reported below $0.61.
Why it matters: Maintaining the dividend signals strong cash flow and commitment to shareholders. A cut could raise concerns.
Watch forBoard declares the quarterly cash dividend at $0.24 per share.
Also watch forBoard reduces the quarterly cash dividend below $0.24 per share.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$141 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $331 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,183 loss on $10,000 · 31.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A higher leverage ratio might mean more debt. This could hurt financial stability.
Worry ifLeverage ratio is above 1.80x.
Less concerning ifLeverage ratio reported at 1.80x or lower.
Why it matters: Keeping EPS guidance shows strong earnings growth. It also shows management's confidence.
Supportive ifManagement confirms EPS guidance remains at $5.64 for 2026.
Worry ifManagement lowers EPS guidance to below $5.64 for 2026.
Why it matters: Maintaining or raising EPS guidance shows strong earnings momentum. This supports investor confidence.
Supportive ifManagement confirms Q3 EPS guidance at or above $0.67.
Worry ifManagement cuts Q3 EPS guidance to below $0.67.
Why it matters: Slower growth in collections may show challenges ahead. This could impact earnings guidance.
Worry ifCollections growth for Q3 reported at less than 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifCollections growth for Q3 reported at 15% or higher year over year.