Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
NYSEHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-09-04
$275.23-1.15%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · JNJ
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $275 the market pays 25× p/e — above the 16× p/e peer median but in line with its own 23× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $199 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts target $260–$320. Note: our $199 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($260–$320). The flat-multiple read looks rich, but earnings are inflecting up — trailing growth is accelerating and forward estimates confirm — so we've softened our read rather than brand an accelerating name expensive. Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $304 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $282.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $165.65 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $200.97 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $92.24 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$260.00 – $320.00 (median $282.00) · 19 analysts · as of 2026-09-02
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 38% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 7.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $10.41/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $71.55 |
| 8.9 |
| 9.32 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $108.34 | 14.1 | 7.67 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $174.50 | 16.1 | 10.86 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $116.61 | 2.9 | 40.13 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $157.04 | 14.5 | 10.86 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $66.40 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $248.62 | 22.9 | 10.86 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $175.22 | 16.1 | 10.90 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $139.33 | 14.1 | 9.86 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $217.04 | 16.1 | 13.51 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $136.93 | 2.9 | 47.13 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $195.32 | 14.5 | 13.51 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $309.23 | 22.9 | 13.51 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $164.77 | 14.1 | 11.66 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $231.33 | 16.1 | 14.40 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $145.94 | 2.9 | 50.23 | guidance | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $208.17 | 14.5 | 14.40 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $329.58 | 22.9 | 14.40 | Analyst | high |