Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
NYSEHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-07-07
$267.34+3.09%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
Reading JNJ? This analysis is rebuilt every market day. Get it tracked free. No credit card.
Track JNJ free→NYSEHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-07-07
Reading JNJ? This analysis is rebuilt every market day. Get it tracked free. No credit card.
Track JNJ free→QuarterlyIQ Insights · JNJ
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $267.34. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $267 JNJ trades at 25× p/e, below its 25× p/e peer median, but our blended $179 fair value sits well below the price. We hold it with low confidence: our number sits well below the analyst range. Analysts target $250–$290. Note: our $179 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($250–$290). The flat-multiple read looks rich, but earnings are inflecting up — trailing growth is accelerating and forward estimates confirm — so we've softened our read rather than brand an accelerating name expensive. Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $274 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
$250.00 – $290.00 (median $266.00) · 11 analysts · as of 2026-07-06
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality. Capped at elevated by the Mania regime.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 32% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 7.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $10.22/sh owner earnings.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $266.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $142.50 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $135.70 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $89.53 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $290.64 | 25.2 | 11.55 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $142.97 | 9.3 | 16.81 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $122.97 | 16.9 | 7.28 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $270.00 | 25.2 | 10.73 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $100.50 | 2.6 | 39.41 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $126.13 | 11.8 | 10.73 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $65.36 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $194.02 | 18.1 | 10.73 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $282.37 | 25.2 | 11.22 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $410.19 | 25.2 | 16.30 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $135.05 | 16.9 | 7.99 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $343.76 | 25.2 | 13.66 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $120.46 | 2.6 | 47.23 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $160.59 | 11.8 | 13.66 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $247.02 | 18.1 | 13.66 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $516.12 | 25.2 | 20.51 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $143.75 | 16.9 | 8.51 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $376.16 | 25.2 | 14.95 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $131.81 | 2.6 | 51.69 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $175.72 | 11.8 | 14.95 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $270.30 | 18.1 | 14.95 | Analyst | medium |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.