JNJ
Johnson & JohnsonNYSEHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, JNJ has a composite score of 18.2, indicating a "mild favorable" signal. The score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 73.5 and a low risk label of 23.8. Key drivers include macro factors related to labor, rates, growth, and inflation. The analysis is provisional, reflecting the potential for changes in guidance and sector trends.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.31
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $2.89 → $2.84 (-1.6% / 30d). 6 raised, 10 cut, 17 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 4 maintained. 56% of analysts rate Buy.
6 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 10.8% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
3 material events in the last 24 months — top 3 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Increase 2026 revenue guidance to $100.8Bgrowthon track92% progress
4/14: “Company increases 2026 guidance with estimated reported sales of $100.8 Billion or 7.0% at the midpoint.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue guidance increased from $100.5B to $100.8B for 2026, reflecting a 7.0% growth at the midpoint. The trajectory shows consistent upward revision, indicating confidence in growth prospects.
- 2.Increase 2026 EPS guidance to $11.55growthon track92% progress
4/14: “Company increases 2026 guidance with adjusted EPS of $11.55 or 7.1% at the midpoint.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. EPS guidance increased from $11.53 to $11.55 for 2026, reflecting a 7.1% growth at the midpoint. The trajectory indicates a positive outlook for earnings growth.
- 3.Dividend increase to $1.34 per sharecapital allocationon track76% progress
4/14: “Board of Directors declared a 3.1% increase in the quarterly dividend, from $1.30 per share to $1.34 per share.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The quarterly dividend increased from $1.30 to $1.34 per share, marking a 3.1% rise. This continues the company's long-standing practice of annual dividend increases, now in its 64th year.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 16%; 252d 17%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −11%. Bad day move −1%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLV) — 0.61 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 72/100, drawdown 78/100, beta 61/100, earnings vol —.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 102.2% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Increase 2026 revenue guidance to $100.8B
GrowthJohnson & Johnson has increased its 2026 revenue guidance to $100.8 billion, reflecting a 7.0% growth at the midpoint.
On trackStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue guidance increased from $100.5B to $100.8B for 2026, reflecting a 7.0% growth at the midpoint. The trajectory shows consistent upward revision, indicating confidence in growth prospects.
92%CEO/CFO:“Company increases 2026 guidance with estimated reported sales of $100.8 Billion or 7.0% at the midpoint.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-14Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-04-14Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Company increases 2026 guidance with estimated reported sales of $100.8 Billion or 7.0% at the midpoint.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Company issues guidance for 2026 with estimated reported sales of $100.5 Billion or 6.7% at the midpoint.”
- #2
Increase 2026 EPS guidance to $11.55
GrowthJohnson & Johnson has increased its 2026 EPS guidance to $11.55, reflecting a 7.1% growth at the midpoint.
On trackStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. EPS guidance increased from $11.53 to $11.55 for 2026, reflecting a 7.1% growth at the midpoint. The trajectory indicates a positive outlook for earnings growth.
92%CEO/CFO:“Company increases 2026 guidance with adjusted EPS of $11.55 or 7.1% at the midpoint.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-14Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-04-14Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Company increases 2026 guidance with adjusted EPS of $11.55 or 7.1% at the midpoint.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Adjusted EPS (Diluted) / Mid-point Change vs. Prior Year / Mid-point $11.43 – $11.63 / $11.53”
- #3
Dividend increase to $1.34 per share
Capital allocationJohnson & Johnson announced a 3.1% increase in its quarterly dividend to $1.34 per share, marking the 64th consecutive year of increases.
On trackNewly stated in 2026-Q1. The quarterly dividend increased from $1.30 to $1.34 per share, marking a 3.1% rise. This continues the company's long-standing practice of annual dividend increases, now in its 64th year.
76%CEO/CFO:“Board of Directors declared a 3.1% increase in the quarterly dividend, from $1.30 per share to $1.34 per share.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-14Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-04-14Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Board of Directors declared a 3.1% increase in the quarterly dividend, from $1.30 per share to $1.34 per share.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
JNJ Johnson & Johnson | +18 | full | low |
LLY Lilly (Eli) | +21 | full | moderate |
ABBV AbbVie | +12 | fair | low |
UNH UnitedHealth Group | +24 | fair | elevated |
MRK Merck & Co. | +28 | full | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If health_care sector trend rises from +0.06 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently RAISED as of 2026-04-14)-16 pts
- If labor state reverses from -0.31 (negative) to +0.31 (positive)-6.8 pts
- If health_care sector trend falls from +0.06 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)-2.9 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-1424d agoItem 2.02
Results of operations and financial condition On April 14, 2026, Johnson & Johnson issued the attached press release (Exhibit 99.1) announcing its sales and earnings for the first quarter ended March 29, 2026.
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 37 - 2026-04-1424d agoItem 8.01
Other Events On April 14, 2026, Johnson & Johnson issued the attached press release (Exhibit 99.3) announcing that its Board of Directors declared a 3.1% increase in the quarterly dividend, from $1.30 per share to $1.34 per share, marking the 64th year of consecutive increases. At the new rate, the indicated dividend on an annual basis is $5.36 per share compared to the previous rate of $5.20 per share. The next quarterly dividend is payable on June 9, 2026 to shareholders of record at the cl…
capital allocationneutralscore 29
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.