Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
NYSEHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-09-04
$275.23-1.15%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · JNJ
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 38.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 29.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers
JNJ — President transition
Dated 2026-08-04
Executive Vice President, Worldwide Chairman, Innovative Medicine and member of the Executive Committee — Jennifer Taubert: Jennifer Taubert is retiring from her position.
Why it matters: If integration works well, JNJ's MedTech products may improve. This could increase revenue.
Supportive ifFirefly Bio integration leads to new products or more revenue.
Worry ifIntegration problems may delay product launches. They could also hurt earnings.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in the overall business momentum.
Worry ifReported revenue growth falls below 6.5% in Q3.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above 6.5% in Q3.
Why it matters: Good data or market use would boost J&J's MedTech position. It would help their growth.
Supportive ifMarket reports say that the Dual Energy THERMOCOOL SMARTTOUCH SF platform is being used well.
Worry ifReports show slow use or bad feedback on the platform.
Why it matters: A slowdown in earnings growth may mean trouble for revenue growth.
Worry ifQ3 earnings growth comes in below 7.0% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 earnings growth meets or exceeds 7.0% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$104 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $178 loss on $10,000 · 1.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,096 loss on $10,000 · 11.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: If revenue growth slows, it could signal trouble in the healthcare sector. This may worry investors.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below the median growth rate for the sector.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains at or above the median growth rate.
Why it matters: An increase in revenue guidance shows strong growth momentum for Johnson & Johnson.
Supportive ifManagement confirms Q2 revenue guidance raised to $100.8B or higher.
Worry ifManagement expects revenue to be less than $100.8B.
Why it matters: Hitting sales goals will show how valuable the Abiomed purchase is for JNJ's growth.
Supportive ifAbiomed's net sales are over $3.7 billion in the second quarter of 2027.
Worry ifAbiomed's net sales do not reach the $3.7 billion threshold during the specified period.
Why it matters: If EPS guidance goes up, it means better earnings and more investor trust.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS guidance raised above $11.68.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS guidance remains at or below $11.68.
Why it matters: A rise in dividends shows strong cash flow. It shows a commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifManagement announces a new increase in the dividend from $1.34 per share.
Worry ifManagement announces a freeze or cut in the dividend.
Why it matters: A drop below 7.0% could signal weakening demand or execution issues. This would raise concerns about the company's ability to meet its raised guidance.
Worry ifQ3 2026 reported revenue growth below 7.0% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 2026 reported revenue growth at or above 7.0% year over year.
Why it matters: If it falls below $11.50, it may show a drop in earnings growth. This raises questions about making money.
Worry ifQ3 2026 adjusted EPS below $11.50.
Less concerning ifQ3 2026 adjusted EPS at or above $11.50.
Why it matters: Getting approval would add new products. This could lead to big revenue growth in a new market.
Supportive ifThe FDA announced approval for IMAAVY. It is the first treatment for warm autoimmune hemolytic anemia.
Worry ifFDA denies approval for IMAAVY.
Why it matters: A good resolution could lower legal risks and costs. This may boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifThe agreement for the ovarian talc lawsuit is complete. It has 95% participation.
Worry ifNot getting enough people to join the lawsuit agreement is a worry.