Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
NYSEHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-09-04
$275.23-1.15%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — EPS reaches at least $11.55 in 2026: FY26 EPS guidance $10.94-$11.01 vs $11.55 target.
Johnson & Johnson grows revenue to about $100.8 billion in 2026. Earnings per share rise to $11.55. The company keeps raising its dividend, now $1.34 per share. New products and investments support steady growth.
Revenue growth could slow below 7.7% next year. Earnings might miss the $11.55 per share target. Legal risks and guidance cuts could hurt profits and dividend growth.
The market price is about 49% above our valuation estimate and 33% below the Street median. Analysts expect roughly 8% revenue growth, which aligns with company guidance. Our view is more cautious on growth and valuation.
Breaks if: dividend per share falls below $1.30 quarterly
Breaks if: EPS falls below $10.85 per share in 2026
Breaks if: revenue falls below $93.7 billion in 2026
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment is characterized as a durable compounder with a focus on steady growth. The current thesis state is intact, reflecting strong financial results despite recent mixed signals in execution quality.
The market appears to be pricing in a low level of fragility, with a divergence driven by a durable premium compared to peers. However, there is an expectations gap, suggesting that some future growth may not be fully reflected in the current valuation.
Fundamentals are likely to show steady growth in revenue and earnings, as management has successfully raised guidance in recent quarters. However, there is a mixed delivery on innovation and pipeline progress, which could impact long-term growth potential.
The thesis hinges on JNJ's ability to raise guidance in the next quarter and the performance of sector bellwethers like LLY and ABBV. Additionally, broader economic conditions, particularly the jobs report, could influence sentiment and performance in the healthcare sector.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'mild_favorable' to 'mixed'.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports a better outlook. Johnson & Johnson raised its 2026 revenue guidance to $101.1 billion. The company completed strategic acquisitions to expand its oncology pipeline. These changes reduce legal uncertainty and enhance growth potential.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, JNJ's performance will depend on its execution of growth initiatives and the overall health of the healthcare sector. Not investment advice.