Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-10-03 · fmp
$2.45 → $2.45 · observed estimates
Johnson Outdoors, Inc. (JOUT)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-11-04
$47.47-3.02%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.45 → 2.45 EPS · FY ending Oct 3, 2028 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for JOUT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Operating income improves to positive territory | Operating income improved from -$20.2M to $10.3M, showing better cost control. | Broken | Operating income falls below $0 next year | Operating income: $18.343M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=$10M operating income. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 7, 202618,343,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-10-03 · fmp
$2.45 → $2.45 · observed estimates
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Dec 11, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a recovery-oriented business thesis, not yet a durable growth story: JOUT is still loss-making overall, despite improving operating income. The thesis has strengthened as company momentum rose and management delivered sales growth, but the current state remains watch because recent performance trails its industry cohort.
JOUT is cheap versus peers, with a valuation premium-versus-peer measure of 0.87 and an expectations gap of -0.14. The priced-in assessment is marked justified, with low fragility, so the evidence does not suggest that expectations are unusually stretched.
Near term, sales growth and higher operating income offer evidence of progress, while cash from operations has shown a mixed path. Two recent earnings beats are positive, but overall earnings quality remains weak and recent financial performance is rated weak; erratic earnings and small-company risk also matter.
Over the next few quarters, the key company-specific test is whether sales growth can translate into steady profitability and cash generation. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued strength or weakness from sector bellwethers HAS, LTH, and GOLF could shape the sector backdrop.
For a 1-3 year view, JOUT has signs of operational progress, but the long-term thesis still depends on sustained profitability and cash-flow improvement amid elevated risk. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Johnson Outdoors, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $0.75 in FY26. |
| Intact |
| EPS estimate falls below $0.50 for FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth sustains above 5% annually | A primary condition in Johnson Outdoors, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=5% YoY revenue growth. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 5% next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.72B → $0.72B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | $2.45 | $724,371,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.45 | $724,371,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.45 | $724,371,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.45 | $724,371,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.45 | $724,371,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.45 | $724,371,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.45 | $724,371,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.45 | $724,371,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.45 | $724,371,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.45 | $724,371,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.45 | $724,371,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.45 | $724,371,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.45 | $724,371,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.45 | $724,371,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.45 | $724,371,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.45 | $724,371,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.45 | $724,371,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.45 | $724,371,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.45 | $724,371,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.45 | $724,371,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.45 | $724,371,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.45 | $724,371,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.45 | $724,371,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.45 | $724,371,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.45 | $724,371,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.45 | $724,371,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.45 | $724,371,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.45 | $724,371,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.45 | $724,371,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.45 | $724,371,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.45 | $724,371,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.45 | $724,371,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.