Johnson Outdoors, Inc. (JOUT)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-11-05
$47.47-3.02%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · JOUT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 5.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 5.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 6 industry peers
JOUT — CFO transition
Dated 2026-06-22
Chief Financial Officer — David W. Johnson: David W. Johnson is retiring and will be succeeded by Asad Rahman as Chief Financial Officer.
Why it matters: Fishing made up most of sales and grew 7% in the last quarter. Slower growth could weaken the company’s main sales driver.
Worry ifFiscal Q4 Fishing sales fall below the prior year, or grow less than 3% year over year.
Less concerning ifFiscal Q4 Fishing sales grow at least 7% year over year.
Why it matters: These segments fell 13% in the last quarter. Another drop would show that weak demand remains a drag.
Worry ifFiscal Q4 Camping and Watercraft sales fall more than 5% year over year.
Less concerning ifFiscal Q4 sales in these segments are flat or higher year over year.
Why it matters: Inventory was $188.3 million, up from $163.7 million a year earlier. More growth could point to stock building faster than demand.
Worry ifAt the Dec. 11 report, inventory is up more than 15% year over year while sales are flat or lower.
Less concerning ifInventory grows more slowly than sales, or falls year over year as sales remain positive.
Why it matters: The sector report says revenue is shrinking, but recent data hints that may change. JOUT's next results can show if its sales growth lasts.
Watch forJOUT reports total sales growth of at least 5% year over year for fiscal Q4.
Also watch forJOUT reports total sales below the prior-year quarter.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$113 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $308 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,630 loss on $10,000 · 26.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.