Johnson Outdoors, Inc. (JOUT)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-09-04
$46.30+1.89%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · JOUT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -2.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 14.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 17.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 18 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
JOUT — CFO transition
Dated 2026-06-22
Chief Financial Officer — David W. Johnson: David W. Johnson is retiring and will be succeeded by Asad Rahman as Chief Financial Officer.
Why it matters: If the sector shows positive revenue growth, it may help JOUT's performance. This could signal a recovery.
Watch forSector revenue growth is positive. This shows a recovery phase.
Also watch forSector revenue growth is negative. This suggests a continuing decline.
Why it matters: New leaders can change the company's strategy. This can affect financial results.
Watch forGood financial results or new plans come after the new CFO starts.
Also watch forBad financial results or unclear strategy follow the CFO change.
Why it matters: A decline in this area may show bigger problems in consumer demand.
Worry ifCamping & Watercraft Recreation sales decline worse than -13% year over year.
Less concerning ifSales stabilize or grow year over year in this segment.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if Johnson Outdoors can improve its financial losses. Investors will look for signs of recovery.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth turning positive year over year.
Also watch forEarnings report shows continued losses with no revenue growth.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$140 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $312 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,630 loss on $10,000 · 26.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Growth in operating income shows that the company manages costs well. It also shows good pricing.
Supportive ifOperating income is over $20 million in Q4.
Worry ifOperating income falls below $15 million in Q4.
Why it matters: Changes in tariffs could greatly impact profits and costs.
Watch forTariff refunds continue or increase beyond $15 million in Q4.
Also watch forNo tariff refunds or new tariffs increase costs in Q4.
Why it matters: Better cash flow means the company is doing well. It shows strong operations and good financial health.
Supportive ifCash from operations is over $80 million in Q4.
Worry ifCash from operations falls below $70 million in Q4.
Why it matters: Stable cash flow is crucial for funding growth and managing costs.
Watch forCash flow from operations is stable or better in the next quarter.
Also watch forCash flow from operations drops more or stays unstable.
Why it matters: Changes in tariffs can affect costs and profits.
Watch forManagement shares good news about tariff changes that lower costs.
Also watch forNew tariffs raise costs a lot, hurting profits.
Why it matters: Sustaining strong revenue growth shows that the company is managing well in a tough market.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth above 15% compared to the prior year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth falls below 15% year over year.
Why it matters: Higher gross margins show better pricing power and cost control.
Supportive ifGross margin exceeds 45% in Q4.
Worry ifGross margin falls below 40% in Q4.
Why it matters: New plans may change the strategy. They could also affect future results.
Watch forThe new CFO, Asad Rahman, will announce new strategic plans.
Also watch forNo major strategic changes were announced by the new CFO.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can change financial plans. They may also affect reporting accuracy.
Watch forNew CFO Asad Rahman makes changes. These changes improve financial clarity.
Also watch forA CFO change can cause confusion. It may delay financial reporting.