Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
James River Group Holdings, Inc. (JRVR)
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$4.00+1.27%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.83 → 0.82 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for JRVR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash flow from operations improves toward positive | Cash flow from operations improved from -$26.8M to -$0.68M recently. | Improving | cash flow remains negative next 4 quarters | Cash from operations: $-5.09M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=$0 cash flow from operations next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 10, 2026-5,090,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk insurance recovery story, not a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis is watchful: E&S casualty growth and disciplined underwriting show progress, while overall results and management execution remain weak or volatile.
JRVR is described as cheap versus peers, but the valuation signal has medium confidence and the expectations gap is negative. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with low fragility; that suggests the current setup is not judged unusually fragile, but does not remove the business risks.
Near term, earnings risk is elevated: JRVR has missed across recent quarters, the latest recorded miss was in August, and the stated probability of a next-quarter miss is 58%. Over the multi-year view, E&S premiums grew between the first and second quarters of 2026 and the E&S combined ratio was 92.8%, while first-half general and administrative expenses fell 9%; however, expense management is marked behind and company momentum weakened sharply.
The thesis depends on continued profitable growth in E&S casualty and better expense control translating into stronger overall financial performance. Near term, rate changes and the earnings results and guidance of sector bellwethers could affect the Financials backdrop, while further misses or weaker guidance would add pressure to the thesis.
For the next 1 to 3 years, JRVR offers evidence of progress in selected operating priorities, but the weak recent record, volatile management assessment, and elevated earnings risk leave the long-term thesis uncertain. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in James River Group Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is $0.01 dividend per share each quarter. |
| Intact |
| dividend falls below $0.01 per share any quarter |
Dividend per share: $0.01 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $0.01 dividend per share each quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 10, 20260.01 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Capital Management The Company announced that its Board of Directors declared a cash dividend of $0.01 per share of common stock.” “Capital Management The Company announced that its Board of Directors declared a cash dividend of $0.01 per share of common stock.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Operating income improves from negative levels | James River aims to improve operating income from -$10.6M in 2026-Q1. | Broken | operating income remains below $0 next 4 quarters | Operating income: $14.074M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=$0 operating income next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 10, 202614,074,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.11 → $0.82 · observed estimates
$0.63B → $0.53B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.11 | $627,339,380 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.11 | $627,339,380 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.11 | $627,339,380 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.11 | $627,339,380 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.11 | $627,339,380 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.11 | $627,339,380 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.11 | $627,339,380 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.11 | $627,339,380 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.97 | $551,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.97 | $551,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.11 | $627,339,380 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.11 | $627,339,380 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.11 | $627,339,380 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.97 | $551,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.97 | $551,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.97 | $551,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.11 | $627,339,380 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.97 | $551,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.97 | $551,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.97 | $551,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.97 | $551,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.97 | $551,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.97 | $551,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.97 | $551,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.97 | $551,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.97 | $551,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.83 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.83 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.83 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.83 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.83 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.83 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.83 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.83 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.83 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.83 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.83 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.83 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.83 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.83 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.83 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.83 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.83 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.83 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.83 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.83 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.83 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.83 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.83 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.83 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.83 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.83 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.83 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.83 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.83 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.83 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.83 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.83 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.83 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.83 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.83 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.83 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.83 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.83 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.83 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.83 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.83 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.83 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.83 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.83 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.83 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.83 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.83 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.83 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.83 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.83 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.83 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.83 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.83 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.83 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.82 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.82 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.82 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.82 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.82 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.82 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.82 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.82 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.82 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.82 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.82 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.82 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.82 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.82 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.82 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.82 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.82 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.82 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.82 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.82 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.82 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.82 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.82 | $526,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.