James River Group Holdings, Inc. (JRVR)
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$4.00+1.27%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · JRVR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -66.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -17.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 49.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 3 industry peers
JRVR — officer change
Dated 2026-09-03
Director — Thomas L. Brown: A director is voluntarily choosing not to seek re-election, which constitutes a departure from the board but is not a sudden executive loss or negative event.
Why it matters: E&S is the main growth focus. In Q2, its combined ratio was 92.8%, while gross written premium fell 17% year over year.
Watch forThe Nov. 9 report shows E&S net written premium above $147.7 million and a combined ratio below 100%.
Also watch forThe Nov. 9 report shows E&S net written premium below $147.7 million or a combined ratio above 100%.
Why it matters: Q2 had only $0.6 million of net adverse reserve changes. More reserve increases could weaken underwriting results.
Worry ifThe next report shows net adverse reserve changes above $0.6 million. This is for E&S and Specialty Admitted combined.
Less concerning ifThe next report shows no net adverse reserve changes, or a net reserve benefit.
Why it matters: The company has kept its dividend at $0.01 per share. A new declaration would continue that pattern; a cut or pause would break it.
Watch forThe board declares another cash dividend of $0.01 per share.
Also watch forThe board declares a dividend below $0.01 per share or no dividend.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$136 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $443 loss on $10,000 · 4.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,198 loss on $10,000 · 52.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.