James River Group Holdings, Inc. (JRVR)
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$4.16-0.72%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · JRVR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -64.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -15.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 49.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
JRVR — officer change
Dated 2026-09-03
Director — Thomas L. Brown: A director is voluntarily choosing not to seek re-election, which constitutes a departure from the board but is not a sudden executive loss or negative event.
Why it matters: Lower expenses show good cost management. This can lead to making more money.
Supportive ifGeneral and administrative costs fell more than 5% in Q3 compared to Q2.
Worry ifGeneral and administrative expenses go up or stay the same in Q3 from Q2.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows the company is stable. It cares about shareholders in tough times.
Supportive ifThe company declares a cash dividend of $0.01 per share for Q3.
Worry ifThe company suspends or reduces the dividend payout in Q3.
Why it matters: A rise in operating income shows that management is making progress. This means higher profits.
Supportive ifQ2 operating income was above -$10.6M. This shows a recovery.
Worry ifQ2 operating income is still below -$10.6M. This shows ongoing struggles.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow shows better efficiency. It also helps keep finances stable.
Supportive ifCash from operations reported above $0.00 in Q2.
Worry ifCash from operations remains negative in Q2.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$142 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $449 loss on $10,000 · 4.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,620 loss on $10,000 · 46.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A continued decline in net written premium would signal challenges in the E&S market and impact growth.
Worry ifNet written premium for Excess and Surplus Lines falls below $147.7 million in Q3.
Less concerning ifNet written premium for Excess and Surplus Lines increases above $147.7 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Growth in E&S premiums is vital for the company's strategy. It reflects market demand and company performance.
Supportive ifE&S gross written premium increases above $220 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifE&S gross written premium declines below $210 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Better underwriting profits help long-term growth. A good trend can raise investor trust.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 operating income is positive. This shows recovery from the $10.6 million loss in Q1 2026.
Worry ifOperating income stays negative or drops more from Q1 2026 levels.
Why it matters: If revenue growth falls below median, it signals a slowdown in the financial sector's growth phase.
Worry ifSector revenue growth drops below its median of 15%.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth stays above its median of 15%.
Why it matters: Lower G&A expenses can boost overall profits. This is important for managing costs well.
Supportive ifG&A expenses decline by more than 10% in Q2 2026 compared to Q1 2026.
Worry ifG&A expenses increase or decline less than 10% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A downgrade may hurt the company's ability to compete. It could also affect new business.
Worry ifA.M. Best rating of the insurance subsidiaries remains at 'A-' or improves.
Less concerning ifA.M. Best downgrades the rating below 'A-' for the insurance subsidiaries.