Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Kirby Corporation (KEX)
NYSEIndustrialsMarine ShippingSnapshot 2026-11-04
$119.47-6.75%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsMarine ShippingSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
8.35 → 8.56 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for KEX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain disciplined capital allocation and manage debt | A supporting condition in Kirby Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is No material increase in net debt beyond current levels. | Intact | Net debt materially increases beyond current levels | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
KEX is an established industrial business with a multi-year view that depends on steady execution rather than a turnaround. The thesis is intact, with robust earnings quality and stable management, but recent financial performance is neutral and the sector backdrop is a headwind.
The valuation model describes KEX as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations are below the model’s baseline. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified with low fragility, but valuation rose materially in the recent period, so that cushion appears less pronounced than before.
Near term, the latest quarter showed growth in marine transportation and distribution and services, and management returned capital through repurchases. The outlook still includes cash generation and capital spending ranges, but evidence against those full-year goals is limited; a guidance cut would be a meaningful risk, despite the quiet near-term miss-risk assessment.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on management sustaining growth in its priority segments and delivering disciplined cash generation and spending. Sector signals from MATX and SMHI also matter: continued earnings strength could support the industrial backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could remove that support.
For the 1-to-3-year view, KEX’s operating thesis remains intact, but its progress depends on execution and a sector backdrop that is currently a headwind. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Free cash flow is strong, guided between $575 million and $675 million in 2026. |
| Intact |
| Free cash flow falls below $575 million in FY26 |
Free cash flow: $890,000 FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=575 million USD. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 2026890,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income growth and margin improvement | Profit margins are stable with operating income slightly up to $107.7 million. | Broken | Operating income fails to increase YoY next year | Operating income: $122.357M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating income increases YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 5, 2026122,357,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth to at least 6% YoY | A primary condition in Kirby Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >=6% YoY. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 6% next year | Revenue growth: 7.83% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=6% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 5, 20267.825543 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$8.26 → $8.56 · observed estimates
$3.79B → $3.95B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $8.26 | $3,785,482,900 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $8.23 | $3,770,185,649 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $8.26 | $3,785,482,900 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $8.23 | $3,770,185,649 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $8.23 | $3,770,185,649 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $8.26 | $3,785,482,900 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $8.26 | $3,785,482,900 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $8.30 | $3,840,874,520 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $8.26 | $3,816,312,098 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $8.34 | $3,865,407,440 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $8.34 | $3,865,407,440 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $8.34 | $3,865,407,440 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $8.34 | $3,865,407,440 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $8.34 | $3,865,407,440 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $8.35 | $3,854,756,201 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $8.34 | $3,865,407,440 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $8.34 | $3,865,407,440 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $8.35 | $3,854,756,201 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $8.35 | $3,854,756,201 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $8.35 | $3,854,756,201 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $8.35 | $3,854,756,201 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $8.35 | $3,854,756,201 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $8.35 | $3,854,756,201 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $8.35 | $3,854,756,201 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $8.35 | $3,854,756,201 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $8.35 | $3,854,756,201 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $8.35 | $3,854,756,201 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $8.35 | $3,854,756,201 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $8.35 | $3,854,756,201 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $8.35 | $3,854,756,201 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $8.35 | $3,854,756,201 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $8.35 | $3,854,756,201 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $8.35 | $3,854,756,201 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $8.35 | $3,854,756,201 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $8.35 | $3,854,756,201 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $8.35 | $3,854,756,201 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $8.35 | $3,854,756,201 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $8.35 | $3,854,756,201 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $8.35 | $3,854,756,201 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $8.35 | $3,854,756,201 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $8.35 | $3,854,756,201 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $8.35 | $3,854,756,201 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $8.35 | $3,854,756,201 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $8.35 | $3,854,756,201 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $8.35 | $3,854,756,201 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $8.35 | $3,854,756,201 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $8.35 | $3,854,756,201 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $8.35 | $3,854,756,201 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $8.35 | $3,854,756,201 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $8.35 | $3,854,756,201 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $8.35 | $3,854,756,201 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $8.35 | $3,854,756,201 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $8.35 | $3,854,756,201 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $8.35 | $3,854,756,201 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $8.35 | $3,854,756,201 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $8.35 | $3,854,756,201 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $8.35 | $3,854,756,201 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $8.35 | $3,854,756,201 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $8.35 | $3,854,756,201 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $8.35 | $3,854,756,201 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $8.35 | $3,854,756,201 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $8.35 | $3,854,756,201 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $8.35 | $3,854,756,201 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $8.35 | $3,854,756,201 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $8.35 | $3,854,756,201 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $8.35 | $3,854,756,201 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $8.35 | $3,854,756,201 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $8.35 | $3,854,756,201 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $8.35 | $3,854,756,201 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $8.35 | $3,854,756,201 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $8.35 | $3,854,756,201 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $8.35 | $3,854,756,201 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $8.35 | $3,854,756,201 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $8.33 | $3,859,972,867 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $8.33 | $3,859,972,867 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $8.30 | $3,859,972,867 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $8.30 | $3,863,204,412 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $8.30 | $3,863,204,412 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $8.30 | $3,863,204,412 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $8.30 | $3,863,204,412 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $8.30 | $3,863,204,412 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $8.30 | $3,863,204,412 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $8.29 | $3,874,318,068 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $8.29 | $3,874,318,068 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $8.29 | $3,874,318,068 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $8.29 | $3,874,318,068 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $8.29 | $3,874,318,068 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $8.29 | $3,874,318,068 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $8.29 | $3,874,318,068 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $8.29 | $3,874,318,068 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $8.29 | $3,874,318,068 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $8.29 | $3,874,318,068 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $8.29 | $3,874,318,068 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $8.29 | $3,874,318,068 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $8.29 | $3,874,318,068 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $8.29 | $3,874,318,068 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $8.55 | $3,929,493,412 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $8.55 | $3,930,931,789 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $8.56 | $3,954,703,218 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $8.56 | $3,954,703,218 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $8.56 | $3,954,703,218 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $8.56 | $3,954,703,218 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $8.56 | $3,954,703,218 | 5 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.