Kirby Corporation (KEX)
NYSEIndustrialsMarine ShippingSnapshot 2026-09-04
$140.77-1.74%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsMarine ShippingSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · KEX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -27.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 34.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 3 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
KEX — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-29
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 29, 2026, Kirby Corporation (“Kirby” or the "Company") issued a press release announcing results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. EBITDA, a non-GAAP financial measure, is used in the press release. Kirby defines EBITDA as net earnings attributable to Kirby before interest expense, taxes on income, and depreciation and amortization. Kirby has historically ev…
Why it matters: More cash from operations means Kirby can invest in growth. This is important for future plans.
Supportive ifCash from operations goes up compared to Q1.
Worry ifCash from operations goes down compared to Q1.
Why it matters: Strong growth in marine transportation revenue shows good market demand and pricing. This helps management's growth plan.
Supportive ifMarine transportation revenue grew more than 5% in Q3 compared to last year.
Worry ifMarine transportation revenue growth in Q3 is less than 0% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Declining oil and gas revenues could signal broader market weakness for Kirby.
Worry ifOil and gas revenues decline by more than 15% year-over-year.
Less concerning ifOil and gas revenues stabilize or grow year-over-year.
Why it matters: Strong growth in power generation helps other areas and raises total revenue.
Supportive ifPower generation revenue will grow more than 45% compared to last year next quarter.
Worry ifPower generation revenue will grow less than 10% compared to last year next quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$96 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $222 loss on $10,000 · 2.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,491 loss on $10,000 · 14.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Growth in distribution and services shows Kirby can adapt to market changes and keep demand.
Supportive ifDistribution and services revenue rose over 5% from last year in Q3.
Worry ifDistribution and services revenue rose under 5% from last year in Q3.
Why it matters: Better operating income means Kirby is controlling costs well. This helps long-term profits.
Supportive ifOperating income goes up from the last quarter.
Worry ifOperating income goes down or stays the same from the last quarter.
Why it matters: Better margins show Kirby is managing costs well, which is important for making money.
Supportive ifOperating margins improve to above 18% in Q3.
Worry ifOperating margins stayed below 18% in Q3.
Why it matters: Active share buybacks show trust in the company's finances. They also show a promise to return money.
Supportive ifShare repurchases exceed $25 million in Q3.
Worry ifShare repurchases are below $25 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Inland marine usage rates show market health and pricing power. Strong rates help revenue.
Supportive ifInland marine barge usage rates are in the low-90% range.
Worry ifInland marine barge usage rates fall below 80%.
Why it matters: Barge utilization rates show how strong demand is in marine transportation. This affects revenue.
Supportive ifIn Q2, average barge usage rates in inland marine are over 90%.
Worry ifAverage barge usage rates in inland marine drop below 85% for Q2.
Why it matters: If the sector grows faster, Kirby may benefit. This could improve its revenue outlook.
Watch forSector revenue growth speeds up above 6% year over year.
Also watch forSector revenue growth slows further below 6% year over year.
Why it matters: Higher cash flow helps support growth and returns for shareholders. It shows strong operations.
Supportive ifOperational cash flow is above $675 million for the quarter.
Worry ifOperational cash flow is below $575 million for the quarter.
Why it matters: The 5% to 15% EPS growth shows strong business and market conditions.
Supportive ifQ2 earnings per share growth guidance remains within the 5% to 15% range.
Worry ifGuidance is lowered below 5% for Q2 earnings per share growth.
Why it matters: More share buybacks can show that management trusts the company's finances.
Supportive ifKirby starts a new share buyback program over $100 million.
Worry ifKirby stops or cuts back on share buybacks.