Kraft Heinz (KHC)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-07-07
$25.30+1.93%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $25.30. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Around the middle on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $25 KHC trades at 9.9× p/e, below its 13× p/e peer median. Our $32 fair value sits well above the price. We hold it with low confidence: our number sits well above the analyst range. Analysts target $18–$24. Note: our $32 fair value sits above the entire analyst range ($18–$24). Not investment advice.
$18.00 – $24.00 (median $22.00) · 6 analysts · as of 2026-06-25
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $1.58/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $22.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $131.16 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $177.42 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $25.55 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $45.06 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $39.60 | 13.0 | 3.04 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $41.65 | 12.5 | 3.32 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $33.22 | 13.0 | 2.55 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $18.82 | 0.9 | 21.04 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $33.06 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $25.34 | 9.9 | 2.55 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $34.89 | 13.0 | 2.68 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $26.54 | 13.0 | 2.04 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $63.35 | 12.5 | 5.05 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $40.23 | 13.0 | 3.09 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $19.39 | 0.9 | 21.67 | guidance | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $30.68 | 9.9 | 3.09 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $20.33 | 13.0 | 1.56 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $83.77 | 12.5 | 6.68 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $41.04 | 13.0 | 3.15 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $19.78 | 0.9 | 22.11 | guidance | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $31.30 | 9.9 | 3.15 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.