KHC
Kraft HeinzNASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, KHC has a composite score of 7.6 and a signal label of "mixed." The score reflects medium confidence at 74.3, with strengths in valuation (90.5) and macro factors (15.5), while momentum is a weakness at -21.2. The analysis is provisional, indicating that the current assessments may change.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share-0.41
- Slope (norm)0.31
- Bonus0.05
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $0.53 → $0.53 (-0.4% / 30d). 2 raised, 1 cut, 16 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 5% of analysts rate Buy.
4 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target -7.0% above current price.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
9 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Reaffirm 2026 Adjusted EPS guidancegrowthmixed63% progress
5/6: “The Company is reaffirming its 2026 outlook with Adjusted EPS in the range of $1.98 to $2.10.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Kraft Heinz reaffirmed its 2026 Adjusted EPS guidance in the range of $1.98 to $2.10. The financials show a net income of $651M in 2025-Q4, indicating a stable earnings trajectory. However, the recent earnings miss suggests potential challenges in meeting this guidance.
- 2.Manage Free Cash Flow expectationscapital allocationwatchprovisional
10/29: “The Company expects Free Cash Flow to increase versus the prior year.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Kraft Heinz expects Free Cash Flow to increase versus the prior year. Cash from operating activities was negative $1.27B in 2025-Q4, down from $3.09B in 2025-Q3, indicating limited progress in improving cash flow.
- 3.Address earnings miss impactothermixed0% progress
5/6: “The Company issued a press release announcing results for the first quarter ended March 28, 2026.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Kraft Heinz reported an earnings miss for the first quarter of 2026. The financials for 2025-Q4 show a net income of $651M, but the recent earnings miss suggests challenges in maintaining this trajectory.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 24%; 252d 25%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −23%. Bad day move −3%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLP) — 1.05 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 58/100, drawdown 54/100, beta 95/100, earnings vol —.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Reaffirm 2026 Adjusted EPS guidance
GrowthNew since 2026-05-06Kraft Heinz reaffirms its 2026 Adjusted EPS guidance in the range of $1.98 to $2.10.
MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q1. Kraft Heinz reaffirmed its 2026 Adjusted EPS guidance in the range of $1.98 to $2.10. The financials show a net income of $651M in 2025-Q4, indicating a stable earnings trajectory. However, the recent earnings miss suggests potential challenges in meeting this guidance.
63%CEO/CFO:“The Company is reaffirming its 2026 outlook with Adjusted EPS in the range of $1.98 to $2.10.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-06Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-06Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“The Company is reaffirming its 2026 outlook with Adjusted EPS in the range of $1.98 to $2.10.”
- #2
Manage Free Cash Flow expectations
Capital allocationKraft Heinz expects Free Cash Flow to increase versus the prior year.
WatchStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Kraft Heinz expects Free Cash Flow to increase versus the prior year. Cash from operating activities was negative $1.27B in 2025-Q4, down from $3.09B in 2025-Q3, indicating limited progress in improving cash flow.
No scoreCEO/CFO:“The Company expects Free Cash Flow to increase versus the prior year.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2025-10-29Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2025-10-29provisionalShow history (2)
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“The Company expects Free Cash Flow to increase versus the prior year.”
- 2025-Q2Multiple sources
“The Company continues to expect Free Cash Flow flat versus the prior year.”
- #3
Address earnings miss impact
OtherNew since 2026-05-06Kraft Heinz acknowledges the impact of an earnings miss for the first quarter ended March 28, 2026.
MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q1. Kraft Heinz reported an earnings miss for the first quarter of 2026. The financials for 2025-Q4 show a net income of $651M, but the recent earnings miss suggests challenges in maintaining this trajectory.
0%CEO/CFO:“The Company issued a press release announcing results for the first quarter ended March 28, 2026.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-06Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-06Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“The Company issued a press release announcing results for the first quarter ended March 28, 2026.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
47 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
KHC Kraft Heinz | +7.6 | inexpensive | moderate |
WMT Walmart | -9.3 | expensive | low |
COST Costco | +3.9 | expensive | moderate |
PG Procter & Gamble | +15 | fair | low |
KO Coca-Cola Company (The) | +14 | full | low |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If consumer_staples sector trend rises from +0.05 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-05-06)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-05-06)-8.0 pts
- If labor state reverses from -0.31 (negative) to +0.31 (positive)-6.2 pts
- If consumer_staples sector trend falls from +0.05 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-062d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, The Kraft Heinz Company issued a press release announcing results for the first quarter ended March 28, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of, or otherwise regarded as filed under, the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (t…
earnings preannouncementnegativescore 75 - 2026-05-071d agoItem 7.01
Regulation FD Disclosure. On May 7, 2026, Kraft Heinz Foods Company (the “Issuer”), a 100% owned subsidiary of The Kraft Heinz Company (“Kraft Heinz”), commenced an offer (the “Tender Offer”) to purchase, for cash, up to a maximum combined aggregate purchase price of $1,100,000,000, excluding accrued and unpaid interest, of its outstanding 4.375% Senior Notes due June 2046 (the “2046 Notes”) and 4.875% Senior Notes due October 2049 (the “2049 Notes” and, together with the 2046 Notes, the “Not…
capital allocationneutralscore 50 - 2026-02-182mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 18, 2026, The Kraft Heinz Company (the “Company”) announced that Pedro Navio, Executive Vice President and President, North America, will step down from his role effective February 22, 2026 to pursue other opportunities. Mr. Navio will remain with the Company as an advisor through March 6, 2026 and will be entitled to receive severance…
executive changeneutralscore 9 - 2026-02-112mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 11, 2026, The Kraft Heinz Company issued a press release announcing results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 27, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of, or otherwise regarded as filed under, the Securities Exchange Ac…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 9 - 2026-01-203mo agoItem 8.01
Other Events. Pursuant to the terms of the Amended and Restated Registration Rights Agreement, dated as of July 2, 2015, by and among The Kraft Heinz Company (the “Company”), 3G Global Food Holdings LP and Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (the “Selling Stockholder”), the Company filed a prospectus supplement on January 20, 2026 (the “Resale Prospectus Supplement”) with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) solely to register the potential resale by the Selling Stockholder of up to an aggr…
capital allocationneutralscore 4
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.